Latent class models for ecological inference on voters transitions

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• 作者：Roberto Colombi ; Antonio Forcina
• 关键词：Voters’ mobility ; Ecological inference ; Latent class models ; Dirichlet ; multinomial distribution
• 刊名：Statistical Methods & Applications
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：November 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：25
• 期：4
• 页码：501-517
• 全文大小：467 KB
• 刊物类别：Mathematics and Statistics
• 刊物主题：Statistics
  Statistics
  Statistics for Business, Economics, Mathematical Finance and Insurance
  Economic Theory
  
• 出版者：Physica Verlag, An Imprint of Springer-Verlag GmbH
• ISSN：1613-981X
• 卷排序：25

文摘

This paper introduces some new models of ecological inference within the context of estimation of voter transitions across elections. In particular, we assume that voters of a given party in a given occasion may be split into two latent types: faithful voters, who will certainly vote again for the same party and movers, who will reconsider their choice. Our models allow for unobserved heterogeneity across polling stations both in the weights of the two latent classes within each party and also when modelling the choice of unfaithful voters. Different ways of modelling the unobserved heterogeneity are considered by exploiting properties of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution and the Brown Payne model of voting transitions can be seen as a special case within the class of models presented here. We discuss pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation and present an application to recent elections in Italy.