Estimating Incidence of HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex with Men, San Francisco, 2004–2014

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• 作者：H. Fisher Raymond ; Yea-Hung Chen ; Willi McFarland
• 关键词：HIV ; Men who have sex with men ; Incidence
• 刊名：AIDS and Behavior
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：20
• 期：1
• 页码：17-21
• 全文大小：511 KB
• 参考文献：1.SFDPH. HIV epidemiology annual report. https://​www.​sfdph.​org/​dph/​files/​reports/​default.​asp (2014).
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  5.MacKellar D, Gallagher KM, Finlayson T, et al. Surveillance of HIV risk and prevention behaviors of men who have sex with men—a national application of venue based, time-space sampling. Public Health Rep. 2007;122(Suppl. 1):39–47.PubMed PubMedCentral
  6.Raymond HF, Chen Y-H, Ick TO, Scheer S, Bernstein K, Liska S, Louie B, Pandori M, McFarland W. A new trend in the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men, San Francisco, 2004-2011. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2013;62(5):584–9. doi:10.​1097/​QAI.​0b013e318285febf​ .PubMed CrossRef
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• 作者单位：H. Fisher Raymond (1) (2)
  Yea-Hung Chen (2)
  Willi McFarland (1) (2)
  
  1. University of California, San Francisco, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, San Francisco, USA
  2. San Francisco Department of Public Health, 25 Van Ness, Suite 500, San Francisco, CA, 94102, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Medicine
• 刊物主题：Medicine & Public Health
  Public Health
  Health Psychology
  Infectious Diseases
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-3254

文摘

After 30 years of the HIV epidemic in San Francisco there is hope that the number of new infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) is decreasing and that current novel interventions such as treatment as prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis will hasten the year that the city sees the last of new HIV infections. In addition, new HIV cases/incidence is the key indicator to measure the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. In this analysis we present an alternate age-cohort approach to estimating HIV incidence and compare our results to other indicators of incidence. Data for the present analysis were collected through National HIV Behavioral Surveillance conducted among MSM in San Francisco using time location sampling from 2004 to 2014. We estimated HIV incidence using a model where a closed population of 100 was divided into number infected and uninfected according to the HIV prevalence of the 21–25 year group and then estimated what incidence over 30 years would result in the HIV prevalence at age 50+. Incidence estimates were 7 per 1000 person years (PY) (338 cases), 7 per 1000 PY (312), 6 per 1000 PY (285) and 6 per 1000 PY (271) for 2004, 2008, 2011 and 2014, respectively. Conclusion: Our data suggest that recent declines in new HIV diagnoses among MSM in San Francisco maybe due to a reduction in a “back log” of undiagnosed cases and not as large of a decline in new cases or HIV incidence. We hypothesize that the decline in new HIV infections among MSM in San Francisco is much slower than suggested by the decline in new HIV diagnoses. Keywords HIV Men who have sex with men Incidence