Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries
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- 作者：Eric Neumayer ; Thomas Plümper
- 关键词：Terrorist attacks ; Tourist arrivals ; Spatial dependence ; Clash of civilizations
- 刊名：Public Choice
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：December 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：169
- 期：3-4
- 页码：195-206
- 全文大小：399 KB
- 刊物类别：Business and Economics
- 刊物主题：Economics
Public Finance and Economics
Political Science - 出版者：Springer Netherlands
- ISSN：1573-7101
- 卷排序：169
文摘
We analyze spatial spillover effects in international tourism as a consequence of transnational terrorist attacks. Specifically, we hypothesize that attacks executed in Islamic countries on citizens from Western countries will generate spatial spillovers of three kinds. Firstly, tourism from the victims’ countries to Islamic destination countries other than the location of the attacks will decline. Secondly, tourism from other Western countries to the country in which the attacks took place will decline. Thirdly, tourism from other Western countries to other Islamic destination countries also will decline. These spatial spillover effects occur because the terror message is strategically addressed at Western citizens in general rather than the tourists’ countries of origin per se. Tourists update their priors after such attacks, rationally expecting a greater chance of becoming victimized in other Islamic countries as well, given the transnational character of Islamist terror groups and the limited capacity of governments in Islamic countries to prevent such attacks.