Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes

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• 作者：Entao Yu ; Jianqi Sun ; Huopo Chen ; Weiling Xiang
• 关键词：Model evaluation ; Regional climate models ; China ; Climatology and extremes
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：October 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：45
• 期：7-8
• 页码：2013-2031
• 全文大小：12,843 KB
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• 作者单位：Entao Yu (1) (2)
  Jianqi Sun (1) (2)
  Huopo Chen (1) (2) (3)
  Weiling Xiang (4)
  
  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  2. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
  4. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country’s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model’s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection over China. Keywords Model evaluation Regional climate models China Climatology and extremes