Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model

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• 作者：Zhihua Ding ; Caicai Feng ; Zhenhua Liu ; Guangqiang Wang ; Lingyun He…
• 关键词：Coal price ; Causality diagram ; System flow diagram ; Model simulation
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：85
• 期：2
• 页码：1151-1167
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Natural Hazards; Hydrogeology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Civil Engineering; Environmental Management;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840
• 卷排序：85

文摘

We analyze and identify the factors that influence coal price fluctuations and construct a system dynamics model of these factors. The simulation results show that the trend in China’s future coal prices first declines and then rises, that the trends of coal supply and consumption in China are quite similar, both exhibiting a rising tendency, and that the gap between supply and demand is small and that the market is essentially in equilibrium. However, the increase in the coal industry profit margins also entails an increase in coal prices, and the magnitude of coal price increases also gradually grows. Greater adjustment coefficient factors lead to higher simulated coal price values, and the magnitude of increase also tends to rise. On the one hand, the greater the coal industry policy coefficient is, the closer the simulated coal price is to the value in the real scenario. On the other hand, the smaller the coal industry policy coefficient is, the greater the extent to which the coal price deviates from the real simulated value.