Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

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• 作者：Susmita Dasgupta ; Md. Moqbul Hossain ; Mainul Huq ; David Wheeler
• 关键词：Climate change ; Coastal areas ; Soil salinity ; Bangladesh
• 刊名：AMBIO
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：December 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：44
• 期：8
• 页码：815-826
• 全文大小：3,092 KB
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• 作者单位：Susmita Dasgupta (1)
  Md. Moqbul Hossain (2)
  Mainul Huq (3)
  David Wheeler (4)
  
  1. Development Research Group, World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington, DC, 20008, USA
  2. Soil Research Development Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Mrittika Bhaban, Krishi Khamar Sarak, Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh
  3. World Bank, House 360, Road 5, Baridhara DOHS, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
  4. World Resources Institute, 5840 Tanglewood Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20817, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1654-7209

文摘

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher. Keywords Climate change Coastal areas Soil salinity Bangladesh