A megacity in a changing climate: the case of Kolkata

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• 作者：Susmita Dasgupta (1)
  Asvani K. Gosain (2)
  Sandhya Rao (3)
  Subhendu Roy (1)
  Maria Sarraf (1)
  
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：4 - February 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：116
• 期：3
• 页码：747-766
• 全文大小：2503KB
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• 作者单位：Susmita Dasgupta (1)
  Asvani K. Gosain (2)
  Sandhya Rao (3)
  Subhendu Roy (1)
  Maria Sarraf (1)
  
  1. World Bank, MC3-347, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC, 20433, USA
  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, India
  3. INRM Consultants Pvt. Ltd., Delhi, India
  
• ISSN：1573-1480

文摘

Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that there will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the 21st century. Kolkata, a megacity in India, has been singled out as one of the urban centers vulnerable to climate risks. Modest flooding during monsoons at high tide in the Hooghly River is a recurring hazard in Kolkata. More intense rainfall, riverine flooding, sea level rise, and coastal storm surges in a changing climate can lead to widespread and severe flooding and bring the city to a standstill for several days. Using rainfall data, high and low emissions scenarios, and sea level rise of 27?cm by 2050, this paper assesses the vulnerability of Kolkata to increasingly intense precipitation events for return periods of 30, 50, and 100?years. It makes location-specific inundation depth and duration projections using hydrological, hydraulic, and urban storm models with geographic overlays. High resolution spatial analysis provides a roadmap for designing adaptation schemes to minimize the impacts of climate change. The modeling results show that de-silting of the main sewers would reduce vulnerable population estimates by at least 5?%.