Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate

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• 作者：Anna Tainio ; Risto K. Heikkinen ; Janne Heliölä…
• 关键词：Adaptation ; Agri ; environmental scheme (AES) ; Ecological corridor ; Species translocation ; Bioclimatic envelope modelling ; Cost ; effectiveness analysis
• 刊名：Regional Environmental Change
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：16
• 期：1
• 页码：71-84
• 全文大小：1,530 KB
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• 作者单位：Anna Tainio (1)
  Risto K. Heikkinen (2)
  Janne Heliölä (2)
  Alistair Hunt (3)
  Paul Watkiss (4) (5) (6)
  Stefan Fronzek (7)
  Niko Leikola (2)
  Sanna Lötjönen (8)
  Olga Mashkina (1)
  Timothy R. Carter (7)
  
  1. Environmental Policy Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland
  2. Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland
  3. Department of Economics, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK
  4. Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, UK
  5. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  6. Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK
  7. Climate Change Programme, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland
  8. Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, Box 27, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Geoecology and Natural Processes
  Geology
  Oceanography
  Geography
  Nature Conservation
  Regional Science
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-378X

文摘

This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable. Keywords Adaptation Agri-environmental scheme (AES) Ecological corridor Species translocation Bioclimatic envelope modelling Cost-effectiveness analysis