A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041

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• 作者：Nico Keilman
• 关键词：Probabilistic household forecast ; Brass relational method ; Random walk with drift ; Random share method ; One ; person households ; Cohabiting couples ; Married couples ; Lone parents ; Institutions
• 刊名：Journal of Population Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：34
• 期：1
• 页码：17-43
• 全文大小：
• 刊物主题：Demography; Sociology, general;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1835-9469
• 卷排序：34

文摘

Probabilistic household forecasts to 2041 are presented for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands. Future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration are taken from official population forecasts. Time series of shares of the population in six different household positions are modelled as random walks with drift. Brass’ relational model preserves the age patterns of the household shares. Probabilistic forecasts for households are computed by combining predictive distributions for the household shares with predictive distributions of the populations, specific for age and sex. If current trends in the three countries continue, we will witness a development towards more and smaller households, often driven by increasing numbers of persons who live alone. We can be quite certain that by 2041, there will be between two and four times as many persons aged 80 and over who live alone when compared with the situation in 2011.