Modeling determinants of urban growth in Dongguan, China: a spatial logistic approach

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• 作者：Felix H. F. Liao (1)
  Y. H. Dennis Wei (2)
  
• 关键词：Urban growth ; Spatially non ; stationary relationship ; Spatial expansion ; Dongguan ; Urban development policies ; Environmental risk assessment
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：May 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：28
• 期：4
• 页码：801-816
• 全文大小：2,211 KB
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• 作者单位：Felix H. F. Liao (1)
  Y. H. Dennis Wei (2)
  
  1. Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112-9155, USA
  2. Department of Geography and Institute of Public and International Affairs, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112-9155, USA
  
• ISSN：1436-3259

文摘

This paper examines spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities through a case study of Dongguan, a rapidly industrializing city characterized by a bottom-up pattern of development based on townships. We have employed both non-spatial and spatial logistic regression models to analyze urban land conversion. The non-spatial logistic regression has found the significance of accessibility, neighborhood conditions and socioeconomic factors for urban development. The logistic regression with spatially expanded coefficients significantly improves the orthodoxy logistic regression with lower levels of spatial autocorrelation of residuals and better goodness-of-fit. More importantly, the spatial logistic model reveals the spatially varying relationship between urban growth and its underlying factors, particularly the local influence of environment protection and urban development policies. The results of the spatial logistic model also provide clear clues for assessing environmental risks to take the local contexts into account.