Temporal differentiation of rainfall thresholds for debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake-affected areas

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• 作者：Xiaojun Guo ; Peng Cui ; Yong Li ; Jianglin Fan ; Yan Yan…
• 关键词：Debris flows ; Rainfall intensity ; Event rainfall ; Loose material ; Wenchuan earthquake area
• 刊名：Environmental Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：75
• 期：2
• 全文大小：10,796 KB
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• 作者单位：Xiaojun Guo (1) (2) (3)
  Peng Cui (1) (2) (4)
  Yong Li (1) (2)
  Jianglin Fan (5)
  Yan Yan (1) (3)
  Yonggang Ge (1) (2)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China
  2. Asian Network on Debris Flow, Chengdu, 610041, China
  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  4. Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  5. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu, 610072, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：None Assigned
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-6299

文摘

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake greatly altered the threshold for rainfall-triggered debris flows in the affected areas. It is of both scientific and practical significance to determine the rainfall thresholds. This study examines one of the regions most prone to debris flows to analyze the characteristics of rainfall that caused debris flows, and to explore local rainfall thresholds. We applied the relation between rainfall intensity and duration, peak intensity and event amount, and other single factor approaches. Comparison of effectiveness and accuracy indicates that the event rainfall is the most sensitive factor for forecasting. Analysis of the annual rainfall thresholds showed that the rainfall conditions required for debris flows have increased on the continent during the past 6 years. Besides the rainfall fluctuations over the past few years, material changes were the primary reason for threshold variability. Recovery of vegetation plays an important role in reducing potential loose material that supplies volume for debris flows. Natural solidification, decrease of the potential erosion depth, and surface coarsening make it more difficult to initiate a debris flow, and ultimately increased rainfall conditions required. The change in rainfall thresholds can be predicted and verified for the entire earthquake-affected region. Keywords Debris flows Rainfall intensity Event rainfall Loose material Wenchuan earthquake area