Modelling macroseismic observations for historical earthquakes: the cases of the M = 7.0, 1954 Sofades and M = 6.8, 1957 Velestino events (central Greece)

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• 作者：Giannis Papazachos ; Costas Papazachos ; Andreas Skarlatoudis…
• 关键词：Macroseismic observations ; Stochastic simulation ; EXSIM ; Thessaly basin ; Southern Thessaly fault zone ; Historical earthquakes ; Site ; effects
• 刊名：Journal of Seismology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：20
• 期：1
• 页码：151-165
• 全文大小：4,775 KB
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• 作者单位：Giannis Papazachos (1)
  Costas Papazachos (2)
  Andreas Skarlatoudis (2)
  Harris Kkallas (2)
  Efthimios Lekkas (1)
  
  1. Faculty of Geology & Geoenvironment, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimioupoli Zografou, GR15784, Athens, Greece
  2. Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, PO Box 352-1, GR54124, Thessaloniki, Greece
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Structural Geology
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-157X

文摘

We attempt to model the spatial distribution of the strong ground motion for the large M = 7.0, 1954 Sofades and M = 6.8, 1957 Velestino events (southern Thessaly basin, central Greece), using the macroseismic intensities (I _{M M} up to 9+) observed within the broader Thessaly area. For this reason, we employ a modified stochastic method realised by the EXSIM algorithm for extended sources, in order to reproduce the damage distribution of these earthquakes, in an attempt to combine existing earthquake information and appropriate scaling relations with surface geology and to investigate the efficiency of the available macroseismic data. For site-effects assessment, we use a new digital geological map of the broader Thessaly basin, where geological formations are grouped by age and mapped on appropriate NEHRP soil classes. Using the previous approach, we estimate synthetic time series for different rupture scenarios and employ various calibrating relations between PGA/PGV and macroseismic intensity, allowing the generation of synthetic (stochastic) isoseismals. Also, different site amplification factors proposed for the broader Aegean area, according to local geology, are tested. Finally, we also perform a sensitivity analysis of the fault location, taking into account the available neotectonic data for the broader southern Thessaly fault zone. The finally determined fault locations are different than previously proposed, in agreement with the available neotectonic information. The observed macroseismic intensities are in good agreement with the ones derived from the synthetic waveforms, verifying both the usefulness of the approach, as well as of the macroseismic data used. Finally, site-effects show clear correlation with the geological classification employed, with constant amplification factors for each soil class generally providing better results than generic transfer functions. Keywords Macroseismic observations Stochastic simulation EXSIM Thessaly basin Southern Thessaly fault zone Historical earthquakes Site-effects