Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Sunnee Billingsley (1)
  
• 关键词：Fertility preferences ; Parity progression ; Postponement ; Post ; communist ; Economic explanations ; Armenia ; Moldova ; Higher ; order births ; Post ; communist ; Postponement ; Employment ; Pr茅f茅rences de f茅condit茅 ; Probabilit茅 d鈥檃grandissement des familles ; Ajournement des naissances ; Post ; communiste ; Explications 茅conomiques ; Arm茅nie ; Moldavie
• 刊名：European Journal of Population / Revue europ篓娄enne de D篓娄mographie
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：May 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：27
• 期：2
• 页码：125-155
• 全文大小：731KB
• 参考文献：1. Agadjanian, V., Dommaraju, P., & Glick, J. (2008). Reproduction in upheaval: Crisis, ethnicity, and fertility in Kazakhstan. / Population Studies, / 62(2), 211鈥?33. CrossRef
  2. Agadjanian, V., & Makarova, E. (2003). From Soviet modernization to post-Soviet transformation: Understanding marriage and fertility dynamics in Uzbekistan. / Development and Change, / 34(3), 447鈥?73. CrossRef
  3. Ajzen, I. (1985). From intentions to actions: A theory of planned behaviour. In J. Kuhl & J. Beckman (Eds.), / Action control: From cognition to behaviour. New York: Springer.
  4. Asatryan, G., & Arakelova, V. (2002). The ethnic minorities of Armenia. Document from the Human Rights in Armenia. Civil Society Institute, Yerevan. http://www.hra.am/file/minorities_en.pdf.
  5. Avdeev, A., Blum, A., & Troitskaya, I. (1995). The history of abortion statistics in Russia and the USSR from 1900 to 1991. / Population: An English Selection, / 7, 39鈥?6.
  6. Barrett, D. B., Kurian, G. T., & Johnson, T. M. (2001). / World Christian encyclopedia. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  7. Becker, G. (1981). / A treatise on the family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  8. Billingsley, S. (2010a). Downward social mobility and fertility in Russia. / Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, / 2010, 1.
  9. Billingsley, S. (2010b). The post鈥恈ommunist fertility puzzle. / Population Research and Policy Review, / 29(2), 193鈥?31. CrossRef
  10. Blake, J. (1967). Family size in the 1960s鈥攁 baffling fad? / Eugenics Quarterly, / 14(1), 60鈥?4.
  11. Bongaarts, J. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies. / Population and Development Review, / 27(Supplement), 260鈥?81.
  12. Bongaarts, J. (2002). The end of fertility transition in the developed world. / Population and Development Review, / 28, 419鈥?44. CrossRef
  13. B眉hler, C. (2004). Additional work, family agriculture, and the birth of a first or a second child in Russia at the beginning of the 1990s. / Population Research and Policy Review, / 23(3), 259鈥?89. CrossRef
  14. B眉hler, C., & Fratczak, E. (2007). Learning from others and receiving support: The impact of personal networks on fertility intentions in Poland. / European Societies, / 9(3), 359鈥?82. CrossRef
  15. B眉hler, C., & Philipov, D. (2005). / Social capital related to fertility: Theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria. Vienna yearbook of population research. Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences Press.
  16. Bulgaru, M., Bulgaru, O., Sobotka, T., & Zeman, K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova. In T. Ku膷era, O. Ku膷erov谩, & O. Opara (Eds.), / New demographic faces of Europe. The changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
  17. Danielyan, E. (2006). Survey highlights Armenia鈥檚 lingering unemployment. / Armenia Liberty. http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/Article/1580435.html.
  18. Fajth, G. (1999). Social security in a rapidly changing environment: The case of the post-communist transformation. / Social Policy and Administration, / 33(4), 416鈥?36. CrossRef
  19. Frejka, T. (2008). Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe. In T. Frejka, T. Sobotka, J. M. Hoem, & L. Toulemon (Eds.), / Childbearing trends and policies in Europe (pp. 130鈥?70). Demographic Research, Series no. 7.
  20. Gerber, T., & Cottrell, E. B. (2006). / Fertility in Russia, 1985鈥?001. Insights from individual fertility histories. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles.
  21. Hinde, A. (1998). / Demographic methods. London: Arnold.
  22. Hotz, V. J., Klerman, J. A., & Willis, R. (1997). The economics of fertility in developed countries. In M. R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (Eds.), / Handbook of population and family economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier science.
  23. Kantorov谩, V. (2004). Education and entry into motherhood: The Czech Republic during state socialism and the transition period (1970鈥?997). / Demographic Research, / S3(10), 245鈥?72. CrossRef
  24. Katus, K. (2000). General patterns of post-transitional fertility in Estonia. / Trames, / 3, 213鈥?30.
  25. Kharkova, T., & Andreev, E. (2000). Did the economic crisis cause the fertility decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus. / European Journal of Population, / 16, 211鈥?33. CrossRef
  26. Klasen, S., & Launov, A. (2006). Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic. / Journal of Population Economics, / 19(1), 25鈥?4. CrossRef
  27. Klesment, M., & Puur, A. (2010). Effects of education on second births before and after societal transititon: Evidence from the Estonian GGS. / Demographic Research, / 22, 891鈥?32. CrossRef
  28. Kohler, H. P., Billari, F., & Ortega, J. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe. / Population and Development Review, / 28(4), 641鈥?80. CrossRef
  29. Kohler, H. P., & Kohler, I. (2002). Fertility decline in Russia in the early and mid 1990s: The role of economic uncertainty and labour market crises. / European Journal of Population, / 18, 233鈥?62.
  30. Kotowska, I. E., J贸藕wiak, J., Matysiak, A., & Baranowska, A. (2008). Poland: Fertility decline鈥攁 response to profound societal change and transformations in the labour market? / Demographic Research, / S7(22), 795鈥?54. CrossRef
  31. Koytcheva, E. (2006). Social-demographic differences of fertility and union formation in Bulgaria before and after the start of the societal transition. Doctoral dissertation published by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
  32. Laborsta. (2010). Laborsta Internet, main statistics, annual. ILO website. http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest.
  33. Lesthaeghe, R., & van de Kaa, R. (1986). Twee demografische transities? In D. van de Kaa & R. Lesthaeghe (Eds.), / Bevolking: Groei en krimp. Deventer: Van Loghum Slaterus.
  34. Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics. (2010). Population by main nationalities, mother tongue and language usually spoken. Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics website. http://www.statistica.md/pageview.php?l=en&idc=295&id=2234.
  35. Muresan, C., & Hoem, J. M. (2009). The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility. / Demographic Research, / 22(4), 95鈥?14.
  36. National Statistical Service (Armenia), Ministry of Health (Armenia), & ORC Macro. (2006). Armenia Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Calverton, Maryland: National Statistical Service, Ministry of Health, & ORC Macro.
  37. National Statistical Service of Armenia. (2010). 2001 Population Census Factsheet. National Statistical Service of Armenia. http://docs.armstat.am/census/pdfs/51.pdf.
  38. NCPM (National Scientific and Applied Center for Preventative Medicine, Moldova), & ORC Macro. (2006). / Moldova Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Calverton, Maryland: National Scientific and Applied Center for Preventative Medicine of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection ORC Macro.
  39. Nee, V. (1989). A theory of market transition: From redistribution to markets in state socialism. / American Sociological Review, / 54, 663鈥?81. CrossRef
  40. Neyer, G., & Andersson, G. (2008). Consequences of family policies on childbearing behaviour: Effects or artifacts? / Population and Development Review, / 34(4), 699鈥?24. CrossRef
  41. N铆 Brolch谩in, M. (1987). Period parity progression ratios and birth intervals in England and Wales, 1941鈥?971: A synthetic life table analysis. / Population Studies, / 41, 103鈥?25. CrossRef
  42. Ol谩h, L., & Fratczak, E. (2004). Becoming a mother in Hungary and Poland during state socialism. / Demographic Research, / S3(9), 213鈥?43. CrossRef
  43. Perelli-Harris, B. (2005). The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. / Population Studies, / 59(1), 55鈥?0. CrossRef
  44. Perelli-Harris, B. (2006). The influence of informal work and subjective well-being on childbearing in post-Soviet Russia. / Population and Development Review, / 32(4), 729鈥?53. CrossRef
  45. Perelli-Harris, B. (2008). Family formation in post-Soviet Ukraine: Changing effects of education in a period of rapid social change. / Social Forces, / 87(2), 767鈥?94. CrossRef
  46. Philipov, D. (2009). Fertility intentions and outcomes: The role of policies to close the gap. / European Journal of Population, / 25, 355鈥?61. CrossRef
  47. Philipov, D., & Jasilioniene, A. (2007). Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper 2007鈥?005.
  48. Philipov, D., Sp茅der, Z., & Billari, F. (2006). Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001). / Population Studies, / 60(3), 289鈥?08. CrossRef
  49. Potan膷okov谩, M., Va艌o, B., Pilinsk谩, V., & Jur膷ov谩, D. (2008). Slovakia: Fertility between tradition and modernity. / Demographic Research, / 19(25), 973鈥?018. CrossRef
  50. Rindfuss, R. R., Cooksey, E. C., & Sutterlin, R. L. (1999). Young adult occupational achievement: Early expectations versus behavioral reality. / Work & Occupations, / 26, 220鈥?63. CrossRef
  51. Rotariu, T. (2006). Romania and the Second Demographic Transition. The traditional value system and low fertility rates. / International Journal of Sociology, / 36(1), 10鈥?7. CrossRef
  52. Rutstein, S., & Johnson, K. (2004). The DHS wealth index. DHS comparative reports no. 6. Calverton, Maryland: ORC Macro
  53. Sarkissian, A. (2008). Religion in post-Soviet Armenia: Pluralism and identity formation in transition. / Religion, State and Society, / 36(2), 163鈥?80. CrossRef
  54. Sobotka, T. (2003). Re-emerging diversity: Rapid fertility changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the collapse of the communist regimes. / Population, / 4鈥?(58), 451鈥?86.
  55. Sp茅der, Z. (2006). Rudiments of recent fertility decline in Hungary: Postponement, educational differences, and outcomes of changing partnership forms. / Demographic Research, / 15(8), 253鈥?84. CrossRef
  56. Stankuniene, V., & Jasilioniene, A. (2008). Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants. / Demographic Research, / 19, 705鈥?42. CrossRef
  57. Stropnik, N., & 艩ircelj, M. (2008). Slovenia: Generous family policy without evidence of any fertility impact. In T. Frejka, T. Sobotka, J. M. Hoem & L. Toulemon (Eds.), Demographic Research, Series no. 7, pp. 1019鈥?058.
  58. Teplova, T. (2007). Welfare state transformation, childcare, and women鈥檚 work in Russia. / Social Politics, / 14, 284鈥?22.
  59. Thornton, A., Axinn, W. J., & Teachman, J. D. (1995). The influence of school enrollment and accumulation on cohabitation and marriage in early adulthood. / American Sociological Review, / 60(5), 762鈥?74. CrossRef
  60. TransMonee. (2004鈥?006). TransMonee Database. Florence: UNICEF IRC.
  61. Troitskaya, I., & Andersson, G. (2007). Transition to modern contraception in Russia: Evidence from the 1996 and 1999 Women鈥檚 Reproductive Health Surveys. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, MPIDR Working paper WP 2007鈥?010, February.
  62. Westoff, C., Sullivan, J., Newby, H., & Themme, A. (2002). Contraception鈥擜bortion connections in Armenia. DHS analytical studies, no. 6. Calverton, Maryland: ORC Macro.
  
• 作者单位：Sunnee Billingsley (1)
  
  1. Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
  

文摘

Little is known about fertility in Armenia and Moldova, the two countries that have both, according to national statistics, experienced very low levels of fertility during the dramatic economic, social and political restructuring in the last two decades. This article fills this gap and explores recent fertility behaviour and current fertility preferences using 2005 Demographic and Health Survey data. Educational differences in fertility decline and the association between socioeconomic indicators and fertility preferences are considered from an economic perspective. Special emphasis is given to determining whether and how diverging economic conditions in the two countries as well as crisis conditions may have influenced fertility. Second parity progression ratios (PPR) reveal a positive relationship between the degree of decline from 1990 to 2005 and education, whereas third PPR declines appear the greatest for women with both the lowest and highest education. In both countries, logistic regression results suggest that working women are more likely to want a second child, as well as want the child sooner university than later in Armenia, and the wealthiest women in Armenia have a higher odds of wanting a third child. Dual-jobless couples are less likely to want a second child in Moldova and more likely to postpone the next child in Armenia. These findings offer some insight into the shifts in fertility behaviour in these two post-Soviet countries and suggest that despite diverging economic trajectories and a lessening commitment to the two-child norm in Moldova, determinants of fertility behaviour and preferences have remained similar in both countries.