How Important is the Time Factor? Saving Lives Using Fire and Rescue Services

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• 作者：Henrik Jaldell
• 关键词：Fire department ; Emergencies ; Response time ; Fatalities
• 刊名：Fire Technology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：53
• 期：2
• 页码：695-708
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Engineering
• 刊物主题：Civil Engineering; Classical Mechanics; Characterization and Evaluation of Materials; Physics, general;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1572-8099
• 卷排序：53

文摘

The shorter the response time of emergency services the more lives are saved. But, how important in fact is the time factor for saving lives? The objective of this study is to analyse the relation between response time and fatalities, to be able to measure how many lives could be saved with a shorter response time. The study uses data from reports from the fire and rescue services in Sweden for 2005–2013 for residential fires. The time variable used is continuous and the statistical methods are non-linear regression techniques. It is found that the risk of fatality is a non-linear function of response time. For a given change of response time, the increase in risk of fatality is large for a short response time, then decreases, and eventually seems to approach zero. If it was possible to decrease the median response time by 1 min 0.00035 lives could be saved for every turn-out on average. For all turn-outs to residential homes that means that about two lives, or 3%, could be saved per year. The response time is most important for blocks of flats, nursing homes and semi-detached/terraced houses. The response time is more important for fires due to smoking, children playing or started intentionally (arson). The results can be used to evaluate the performance of local fire and rescue services. The method is easy to use for other emergency services, such as ambulances.