Scenario Optimisation of Pumping Schedules in a Complex Water Supply System Considering a Cost–Risk Balancing Approach

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Jacopo Napolitano ; Giovanni M. Sechi ; Paola Zuddas
• 关键词：Scenario analysis optimisation ; Pumping schedules ; Cost ; risk balancing problem
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：November 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：14
• 页码：5231-5246
• 全文大小：1,065 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650
• 卷排序：30

文摘

The optimisation of water pumping plant activation schedules is a significant issue when managing emergency and costly water transfer under a drought risk. This problem needs specific optimisation tools to deal with complex multi-reservoir supply systems and to consider different alternative scenarios. The effectiveness of emergency transfers alleviating droughts requires early warning and activation; on the other hand, the high operating costs of pump stations require system managers to take a robust approach that defines activation rules. The proposed optimisation procedure combines scenario optimisation analysis with a cost-risk balancing approach. The model searches for the identification of optimal decision rules by balancing the risk of water shortages and the operating costs of pumping stations. Scenario optimisation provides ‘barycentric’ values that define the activation threshold by comparing hydrological synthetic series results. A multi-objective approach is also required in order to balance energy cost minimisation requirements and a reduction of damage needs that can be caused by water shortages. Consequently, a scenario optimisation has been developed considering the multi-objective and cost-risk balancing problem. A model application has been developed optimising water management and energy costs in a real water system with shortage risks in the South Sardinia (Italy) region.