Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

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• 作者：Francesca Senese (1)
  Paolo Tubertini (2)
  Angelina Mazzocchetti (3)
  Andrea Lodi (2)
  Corrado Ruozi (1)
  Roberto Grilli (1)
  
  1. Regional Agency for Health and Social Care of Emilia-Romagna ; Via Aldo Moro 21 ; 40127 ; Bologna ; Italy
  2. Department of Electrical ; Electronic ; and Information Engineering ; University of Bologna ; Bologna ; Italy
  3. Regional Bureau of Statistics of Emilia-Romagna ; Bologna ; Italy
  
• 关键词：Health workforce forecast ; Requirement model ; Medical training ; Optimization ; System dynamics
• 刊名：Human Resources for Health
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：December 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：13
• 期：1
• 全文大小：57 KB
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• 刊物主题：Health Administration; Social Policy;
• 出版者：BioMed Central
• ISSN：1478-4491

文摘

Objectives Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. Methods We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. Results To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.