Specification of a Coupled Geological and Wellbore Fluid Dynamics Model for Uncertainty Analysis and Risk-Based Design on a Subsea Oil Project

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• 作者：Christopher J. Jablonowski ; Arash Haghshenas…
• 关键词：Risk analysis ; probabilistic analysis ; experimental design ; oil and gas
• 刊名：Natural Resources Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：26
• 期：1
• 页码：57-65
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Mineral Resources; Fossil Fuels (incl. Carbon Capture); Geography, general; Sustainable Development; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Mathematical M
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1573-8981
• 卷排序：26

文摘

This paper describes the method and results of a probabilistic risk analysis that was used to provide a quantitative basis for a complex and high-stakes design decision for a subsea oil project. Geologic properties were specified as probability density functions based on information from a small number of exploration and appraisal wells. The geological information was coupled to a wellbore fluid dynamics model to simulate operational outcomes for potential well kill operations. Conventional probabilistic sampling and a more efficient experimental design approach were both employed. The key results are cumulative density functions for critical bases of design that are used for risk analysis and final equipment selection. The analysis reinforces the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, in this case the subsurface disciplines and well engineering, to achieve efficient risk-based designs.