Simulation and projection of changes in rainy season precipitation over China using the WRF model

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• 作者：Shuzhou Wang (1) (2)
  Entao Yu (2) (3)
  
• 关键词：WRF model ; dynamical downscaling ; rainy season precipitation ; interannual variation
• 刊名：Acta Meteorologica Sinica
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：August 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：27
• 期：4
• 页码：577-584
• 全文大小：5851KB
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• 作者单位：Shuzhou Wang (1) (2)
  Entao Yu (2) (3)
  
  1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
  2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  3. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  
• ISSN：2191-4788

文摘

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-000, and to investigate potential future (2041-060 and 2081-100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.