Modelling and mapping potential epidemics of wheat diseases—examples on leaf rust and Septoria tritici blotch using EPIWHEAT

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Serge Savary ; Stacia Stetkiewicz ; Fran?ois Brun…
• 关键词：Botanical epidemiology ; Epidemiological modelling ; Model evaluation ; Wheat diseases
• 刊名：European Journal of Plant Pathology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：August 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：142
• 期：4
• 页码：771-790
• 全文大小：1,072 KB
• 参考文献：Alston, J. M., Beddow, J. M., & Pardey, P. G. (2009). Agricultural research, productivity, and food prices in the long run. Science, 325, 1209-210.PubMed View Article
  Bergamin Filho, A., & Amorim, L. (1996). Doen?as de plantas tropicais: epidemiologia e controle econ?mico. Sao Paulo: Editora Agron?mica Ceres Lda.
  Berger, R. D., Hau, B., Weber, G. E., Bacchi, L. M. A., Bergamin Filho, A., & Amorim, L. (1995). A simulation model to describe epidemics of rust of Phaseolus beans: I. Development of the model and sensitivity analysis. Phytopathology, 85, 715-21.View Article
  Berger, R. D., Bergamin Filho, A., & Amorim, L. (1997). Lesion expansion as an epidemic component. Phytopathology, 87, 1005-013.PubMed View Article
  Bockus, W., Bowden, R., Hunger, R., Morrill, W., Murray, T., & Smiley, R. (Eds.). (2010). Compendium of wheat diseases and pests (3rd ed.). St Paul: APS.
  Bowen, K. L., Teng, P. S., & Roelfs, A. P. (1984). Negative interplot interference in field experiments with leaf rust of wheat. Phytopathology, 74, 1157-161.View Article
  Caffi, T., Rossi, V., Legler, S. E., & Bugiani, R. (2011). A mechanistic model simulating ascosporic infections by Erysiphe necator, the powdery mildew fungus of grapevine. Plant Pathology, 60, 522-31.View Article
  Campbell, L. C., & Madden, L. V. (1990). Introduction to plant disease epidemiology. New York: Wiley.
  Chamberlain, A. C. (1967). Deposition of particles to natural surfaces. In P. H. Gregory & J. L. Monteith (Eds.), Airborne microbes (pp. 138-64). Cambridge: University Press.
  Coakley, S. M., McDaniel, L. R., & Shaner, G. (1985). Model for predicting severity of Septoria tritici blotch on winter wheat. Phytopathology, 75, 1245-251.View Article
  De Vallavieille-Pope, C., Huber, L., Leconte, M., & Goyeau, H. (1995). Comparative effects of temperature and interrupted wet periods on germination, penetration, and infection of Puccinia recondita f.sp. tritici and P. striiformis on wheat seedlings. Phytopathology, 85, 409-15.View Article
  Djurle, A., & Yuen, J. E. (1991). A simulation model for Septoria nodorum in winter wheat. Agricultural Systems, 37, 193-18.View Article
  Duveiller, E., Singh, R. P., & Nicol, J. M. (2007). The challenges of maintaining wheat productivity: pests, diseases, and potential epidemics. Euphytica, 157, 417-30.View Article
  Duvivier, M., Dedeurwaerder, G., De Proft, M., Moreau, J. M., & Legrève, A. (2013). Real-time PCR quantification and spatio-temporal distribution of airborne inoculum of Mycosphaerella graminicola in Belgium. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 137, 325-41.View Article
  El Jarroudi, M., Delfosse, P., Maraite, H., Hoffmann, L., & Tychon, B. (2009). Assessing the accuracy of simulation model for Septoria leaf blotch disease progress on winter wheat. Plant Disease, 93, 983-92.View Article
  Eyal, Z., & Brown, M. B. (1976). A quantitative method for estimating density of Septoria tritici pycnidia on wheat leaves. Phytopathology, 66, 11-4.View Article
  Goyeau, H., & Lannou, C. (2011). Specific resistance to leaf rust expressed at the seedling stage in cultivars grown in France from 1983 to 2007. Euphytica, 178, 45-2.View Article
  Goyeau, H., Berder, J., Czerepak, C., Lanen, C., & Lannou, C. (2012). Low diversity and fast evolution in the population of Puccinia triticina causing durum wheat leaf rust in France from 1999 to 2009, as revealed by an adapted differential set. Plant Pathology, 61, 761-72.View Article
  Groot, J. J. R. (1987). Simulation of nitrogen balance in a system of winter wheat and soil. Simulation Report CABO-TT nr. 13, Wageningen.
  Hess, D. E., & Shaner, G. (1987a). Effect of moisture on Septoria tritici blotch development in the field. Phytopathology, 77, 220-26.View Article
  Hess, D. E., & Shaner, G. (1987b). Effect of moisture and temperature on development of Septoria tritici blotch in wheat. Phytopathology, 77, 215-19.View Article
  Hirst, J. M., & Stedman, O. J. (1963). Dry liberation of fungus spores by rain drops. Journal of General Microbiology, 33, 335-44.PubMed View Article
  Huerta-Espino, J., Singh, R. P., German, S., McCallum, B. D., Park, R. F., Chen, W. Q., et al. (2011). Global status of wheat leaf rust caused by Puccinia triticina. Euphytica, 179, 143-60.View Article
  Hughes, G., McRoberts, N., & Burnett, F. J. (1999). Decision-making and diagnosis in disease management. Plant Pathology, 48, 147-53.View Article
  James, C. (1971). A manual of assessment keys for plant diseases. St. Paul: The American Phytopathological Society.
  Kulkarni, R. N., Chopra, V. L., & Singh, D. (1981). Observed and hypothetical leaf rust progress curves of some genotypes of wheat. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 60, 85-8.PubMed View Article
  Lannou, C., & Savary, S. (1991). The spatial structure of spontaneous epidemics of different diseases in a groundnut plot. Netherlands Journal of Plant Patholology, 97, 355-67.View Arti
• 作者单位：Serge Savary (1) (2)
  Stacia Stetkiewicz (1) (2)
  Fran?ois Brun (3)
  Laetitia Willocquet (1) (2)
  
  1. INRA, UMR1248 AGIR, 24 Chemin de Borde Rouge, Auzeville, CS 52627, 31326, Castanet-Tolosan cedex, France
  2. Université Toulouse, INPT, UMR AGIR, 31029, Toulouse, France
  3. ACTA, 24 Chemin de Borde Rouge, Auzeville, CS52627, 31326, Castanet-Tolosan cedex, France
  
• 刊物类别：Biomedical and Life Sciences
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences
  Plant Pathology
  Plant Sciences
  Ecology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-8469

文摘

Policy makers and researchers need to develop long-term priorities using reliable, quantitative tools to assess the risks associated with plant diseases over a range of plant pathogens and over space. EPIWHEAT is a generic simulation model designed to analyse potential disease epidemics in wheat, i.e., epidemics that depend only on the physical environment, and that are not constrained by any disease control. The model is developed on a core structure involving healthy, latent, infectious, and removed sites, and accounts for lesion expansion. It simulates in a simple way host dynamics (growth and senescence). The model involves as few parameters as possible, and a few driving functions. Here, EPIWHEAT is populated with parameters for brown rust (leaf rust; Puccinia triticina) and Septoria tritici blotch (Zymoseptoria tritici). Simulated epidemics are compared to observations at the field, national (France), and European scales. The model appears to represent a sound basis for predicting potential epidemics of wheat foliar diseases at large scales. Areas for model development are documented and discussed. EPIWHEAT appears to provide a simple, generic, transparent, flexible, and reliable platform to modelling potential epidemics caused by leaf pathogens of wheat.