Implications of population growth and urbanization on agricultural risks in China

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• 作者：G. Fischer (1)
  W. Winiwarter (1) (2)
  G. Y. Cao (1)
  T. Ermolieva (1)
  E. Hizsnyik (1)
  Z. Klimont (1)
  D. Wiberg (1)
  X. Y. Zheng (3)
  
• 关键词：Population growth ; Urbanization ; Agriculture ; Intensification ; Environment ; Pollution ; Health ; Spatial planning of production expansion ; China ; Demography
• 刊名：Population and Environment
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：March 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：33
• 期：2-3
• 页码：243-258
• 全文大小：442KB
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• 作者单位：G. Fischer (1)
  W. Winiwarter (1) (2)
  G. Y. Cao (1)
  T. Ermolieva (1)
  E. Hizsnyik (1)
  Z. Klimont (1)
  D. Wiberg (1)
  X. Y. Zheng (3)
  
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
  2. Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), Donau-City Str. 1, 1220, Vienna, Austria
  3. Population Institute, Beijing University, Beijing, China
  
• ISSN：1573-7810

文摘

Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and changing consumption preferences stimulate intensification of livestock production and excessive fertilization of crops in China. We present an innovative approach that sheds light on options to prevent negative environmental consequences of food production. Trends indicate that agricultural production expansion will take place in 鈥減rofitable鈥?locations around densely populated areas, where there are generally insufficient natural resources to recycle production wastes. This will likely lead to increased environmental impacts and risks to human health, with the largest impacts in close proximity to population hotspots. We identify trends in Chinese agricultural production and devise and compare feasible mitigation scenarios. We present a spatial allocation procedure that facilitates management of agricultural production expansion, accounting for environmental and health constraints. This procedure, based on behavioral principles, uses a spatial risk preference structure induced by local conditions, including environment, production, and demand, with important research and policy implications.