Has the Largest Field Been Discovered Yet? PETRIMES and GRASP 25 Years Later

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• 作者：Gordon M. Kaufman ; Ray Faith ; John H. Schuenemeyer
• 关键词：Oil and gas discovery modeling ; Successive sampling ; GRASP ; PETRIMES ; Pool size by rank ; Sampling proportional to size
• 刊名：Mathematical Geosciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：November 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：48
• 期：8
• 页码：873-890
• 全文大小：970 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Mathematical Applications in Geosciences
  Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Geosciences
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Hydrogeology
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1874-8953
• 卷排序：48

文摘

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources has been an important component of energy policy for the governments of the United States and Canada for many years. A pool-size-by-rank statistical procedure is a centerpiece of the Geological Survey of Canada’s Petroleum Exploration and Resource Evaluation System (PETRIMES) and of the U.S. Department of Interior’s Geological Resource Assessment Program (GRASP). Both employ discovery process modeling to make inferences about the number of pools in a play and about parameters of the play’s pool size distribution. The pool-size-by-rank procedure implemented in these two systems abandons a key primitive postulate on which modern discovery process models are based—sampling proportional to pool size and without replacement. This logical disjunction has consequences: the predictive distribution of number of pools remaining to be discovered and the predictive distribution of undiscovered pool sizes generated by use of pool-size-by-rank procedures differ substantially in shape, location and spread from predictive distributions that incorporate sampling proportional to size. Uncertainty about total undiscovered oil and gas in a play is diminished.