Transient Uncertainty Analysis in Solar Thermal System Modeling

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• 作者：Heejin Cho ; Aaron Smith ; Rogelio Luck…
• 关键词：Solar thermal ; Dynamic model ; Uncertainty ; Sensitivity
• 刊名：Journal of Uncertainty Analysis and Applications
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：December 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：5
• 期：1
• 全文大小：981KB
• 刊物主题：Operations Research, Management Science; Computational Intelligence; Operation Research/Decision Theory;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：2195-5468
• 卷排序：5

文摘

Complex, dynamic, computational models are routinely used to evaluate and optimize the design and performance of solar thermal systems. As models become more complex, performing uncertainty analysis on such models can be quite challenging and computationally expensive. This paper presents an effective approach to quantify uncertainties associated with transient simulation results from a dynamic solar thermal energy system model with uncertain parameters. The proposed method utilizes the concept of impulse response and convolution process to estimate the sensitivities to time-varying external inputs. Using this method, the number of simulations required to propagate uncertainties through dynamic models can be significantly reduced. An example is presented throughout the paper to demonstrate the procedure of the proposed uncertainty analysis approach.