Increasing frost risk associated with advanced citrus flowering dates in Kerman and Shiraz, Iran: 1960-010

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• 作者：Jennifer M. Fitchett ; Stefan W. Grab…
• 关键词：Diurnal and seasonal temperature range ; Climate warming ; Peak flowering date ; Fruit phenology
• 刊名：International Journal of Biometeorology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：October 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：58
• 期：8
• 页码：1811-1815
• 全文大小：316 KB
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• 作者单位：Jennifer M. Fitchett (1)
  Stefan W. Grab (1)
  Dave I. Thompson (2) (3)
  Gholamreza Roshan (4)
  
  1. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Private Bag 3, Wits, 2050, South Africa
  2. South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), Ndlovu Node, Private Bag X1021, Phalaborwa, 1390, South Africa
  3. School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South Africa
  4. Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
  
• ISSN：1432-1254

文摘

Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both T max and T min, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.