Stochastic Simulation and Management of an Over-Exploited Aquifer Using an Integrated Modeling System

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• 作者：P. Sidiropoulos ; N. Mylopoulos ; A. Loukas
• 关键词：Overexploited aquifer ; Uncertainty analysis ; Stochastic ; Integrated simulation ; Restoration ; Water resources management
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：29
• 期：3
• 页码：929-943
• 全文大小：1,280 KB
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• 作者单位：P. Sidiropoulos (1)
  N. Mylopoulos (1)
  A. Loukas (1)
  
  1. Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, 38334, Volos, Greece
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

A modeling system for the stochastic simulation and management of the overexploited groundwater resources of Lake Karla Basin in Central Greece is presented. The uncertainty of the hydrogeological environment which arises from the lack of the hydraulic conductivity data and aquifer’s heterogeneity necessitates the stochastic simulation of the underlying aquifer. For the conditional stochastic simulation of hydraulic conductivity, the geostatistical approach was used generating Monte-Carlo realizations. The impact of Lake Karla (or reservoir) restoration and the accompanying projects on the aquifer, is examined through various management scenarios taking into consideration this parameter uncertainty. The target of the restoration plan is to rehabilitate aquifer’s water table. This will be achieved through shutting down a great number of irrigation wells, as the irrigation needs of cultivations will be covered by the reservoir. The project with the highest environmental impact on the aquifer is the construction of 50 water supply wells at the lakeside zone of Lake Karla. Nowadays, due to the intense agricultural cultivation, the study area faces a serious water deficit problem, which has led to the over-exploitation of non-renewable groundwater and to a dramatic drawdown of aquifer’s water table. The results of the stochastic simulation and management indicates that the operation of the new water supply wells will lead, despite the operation of the new reservoir, to a further drawdown of aquifer’s water table, and will increase the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydraulic heads estimation by groundwater model.