Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Rui Hui ; Jay Lund ; Jianshi Zhao ; Tongtiegang Zhao
• 关键词：Flood hedging ; Pre ; storm release ; Optimization ; Reservoir flood operation
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：November 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：14
• 页码：5113-5129
• 全文大小：8,902 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650
• 卷排序：30

文摘

Flood hedging reservoir operation is when a pre-storm release creates a small flood downstream to reduce the likelihood of a more damaging but uncertain larger flood in the future. Such pre-storm releases before a flood can increase reservoir storage capacity available to capture more severe flood flows, but also can immediately increase downstream flood damage and reduce stored water supply. This study develops an optimization model for pre-storm flood hedging releases and examines some necessary theoretical conditions for optimality, considering hydrologic uncertainty from flood forecasts and engineering uncertainty from flood failures. Theoretically, the ideal optimality condition for pre-storm flood hedging releases is where the current marginal damage from the hedging release equals the future expected marginal damage from storm releases. Additional water supply losses due to pre-storm releases tend to reduce pre-storm flood hedging releases. The overall flood damage cost to be minimized must be a convex function of pre-storm hedging releases for flood hedging to be optimal. Such convexity is determined by the overall flood risk together with the probability distribution of storm forecasts. Increasing the convexity of the failure probability function can induce more pre-storm hedging release. Categorized by flood risk likelihood downstream, forecasted storms that are large, but not yet overwhelming flood management systems, drive optimal flood hedging operation. A wide range of near-optimal hedging releases is observed in numerical examples, providing options for more rational water resources management decisions.