Water shortage risk assessment using spatiotemporal flow simulation

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Hsin-I Hsieh ; Ming-Daw Su ; Yii-Chen Wu ; Ke-Sheng Cheng
• 关键词：Spatiotemporal simulation ; Risk assessment ; Irrigation ; Semi ; variogram
• 刊名：Geoscience Letters
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：3
• 期：1
• 全文大小：4,393 KB
• 参考文献：Cheng KS, Yeh HC, Liou CY (2000a) Comparative study of drought prediction techniques for reservoir operation. J Am Water Resources Association 36(3):511–521CrossRef
  Cheng KS, Yeh HC, Tsai CH (2000b) An anisotropic spatial modeling approach for remote sensing image rectification. Remote Sensing Environ 73(1):46–54CrossRef
  Cheng KS, Wei C, Cheng YB, Yeh HC (2003) Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth. Hydrological Process 17:1755–1769CrossRef
  Cheng KS, Hou JC, Liou JJ (2011) Stochastic simulation of bivariate gamma distribution—a frequency-factor based approach. Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assessment 25(2):107–122CrossRef
  Fernandez B, Salas JD (1990) Gamma-autoregressive models for stream-flow simulation. J Hydraulic Eng 116(11):1403–1414CrossRef
  Franco C, Soares A, Delgado J (2006) Geostatistical modelling of heavy metal contamination in the topsoil of Guadiamar river margins (S Spain) using a stochastic simulation technique. Geoderma 136:852–864CrossRef
  Greenwood JA, Landwehr JM, Matalas NC, Wallis JR (1979) Probability weighted moments: definition and relation to parameters of several distributions expressible in inverse form. Water Resources Res 15:1049–1054CrossRef
  Guillot G (1999) Approximation of Sahelian rainfall fields with meta-Gaussian random functions. Part 1: model definition and methodology. Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assessment 13:100–112CrossRef
  Herrick MG, Benson DA, Meerschaert MM, McCall KR (2002) Hydraulic conductivity, velocity, and the order of the fractional dispersion derivative in a highly heterogeneous system. Water Resources Res 38(11):1227–1239CrossRef
  Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1995) A comparison of unbiased and plotting-position estimators of L-moments. Water Resources Res 31(8):2019–2025CrossRef
  Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1997) Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRef
  Hsieh HI, Su MD, Cheng KS (2014) Multisite spatiotemporal streamflow simulation—with an application to irrigation water shortage risk assessment. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sci 25(2):255–266. doi:10.​3319/​TAO.​2013.​10.​21.​01(Hy) CrossRef
  Journel AG, Huijbregts CJ (1978) Mining Geostatistics. Academic Press, London
  Liou JJ, Wu YC, Cheng KS (2008) Establishing acceptance regions for L-moments-based goodness-of-fit test by stochastic simulation. J Hydrology 355(1–4):49–62CrossRef
  Liou JJ, Su YF, Chiang JL, Cheng KS (2011) Gamma random field simulation by a covariance matrix transformation method. Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assessment 25(2):235–251. doi:10.​1007/​s00477-010-0434-8 CrossRef
  Machiwal D, Jha MK (2006) Time series analysis of hydrologic data for water resources planning and management: a review. J Hydrology Hydromechanics 54(3):237–257
  Wen TH, Lin CH, Chen CT, Su MD (2007) Analysis of spatial scenarios aiding decision making for regional irrigation water-demand planning. J Irrigation Drainage Eng 133:455–467. doi:10.​1061/​(ASCE)0733-9437(2007)133:​5(455) CrossRef
  Wu YC, Liou JJ, Cheng KS (2012) Establishing acceptance regions for L-moments based goodness-of-fit tests for the Pearson type III distribution. Stochastic Environ Res Risk Assessment 26:873–885CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：Hsin-I Hsieh (1)
  Ming-Daw Su (1)
  Yii-Chen Wu (1)
  Ke-Sheng Cheng (1) (2)
  
  1. Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  2. Master Program in Statistics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  
• 刊物类别：Earth Sciences, general; Atmospheric Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Oceanography; Planetology; Biogeo
• 刊物主题：Earth Sciences, general; Atmospheric Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Oceanography; Planetology; Biogeosciences;
• 出版者：Springer International Publishing
• ISSN：2196-4092

文摘

Paddy irrigation practices in Taiwan utilize complicated water conveyance networks which draw streamflows from different tributaries. Characterizing and simulating streamflow series is thus an essential task for irrigation risk assessment and planning mitigation measures. It generally involves modeling the temporal variation and spatial correlation of streamflow data at different sites. Like many other environmental variables, streamflows are asymmetric and non-Gaussian. Such properties exacerbate the difficulties in spatiotemporal modeling of streamflow data. A stochastic spatiotemporal simulation approach capable of generating non-Gaussian ten-day period streamflow data series at different sites is presented in this paper. Historical flow data from different flow stations in southern Taiwan were used to exemplify the application of the proposed model. Simulated realizations of the spatiotemporal anisotropic multivariate Pearson type III distribution were validated by comparing parameters and spatiotemporal correlation characteristics of the simulated data and the observed streamflow data. Risks of irrigation water shortage were estimated and the effect of mitigation measures was assessed using the simulated data. Keywords Spatiotemporal simulation Risk assessment Irrigation Semi-variogram