Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China

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• 作者：Runrun Zhang ; Xi Chen ; Qinbo Cheng…
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：August 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：6
• 页码：1641-1657
• 全文大小：1,412 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Mathematical Applications in Environmental Science
  Mathematical Applications in Geosciences
  Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
  Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Geosciences
  Numerical and Computational Methods in Engineering
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-3259
• 卷排序：30

文摘

Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of \(T(X < x,Y < y)\) and \(T(X \le x,Y \ge y)\) and the conditional probability of \(P(Y \ge y|X \le x)\) were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.KeywordsDroughtCopulaPrecipitationReservoir storageThe Huaihe River