Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River basin

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• 作者：Xuehua Zhao ; Xu Chen ; Qiang Huang
• 关键词：upper reaches of the Fen River basin ; empirical mode decomposition ; Mann ; Kendall method ; rescaled range analysis ; detrended fluctuation analysis
• 刊名：Water Resources
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：44
• 期：1
• 页码：31-42
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Hydrogeology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution;
• 出版者：Pleiades Publishing
• ISSN：1608-344X
• 卷排序：44

文摘

In order to explore long-term evolution rule and future trend of runoff time series, and exactly detect its tendency and long-range correlation characteristics, runoff data covering 1952–2012 from 3 stations across the upper Fenhe River basin were analyzed. The moving average method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method were simultaneously applied to analyze the trend characteristics firstly. Then Rescaled Range analysis (R/S) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) methods were employed to research the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle of hydrological time series, they can systematically detect and overcome non-stationarity at all time scales. Finally, predict the future trend by combining the trend characteristics with the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle. The results illustrate the annual runoff series is non-linear, non-normal time series, and have 10 years non-periodic cycle length and noticeable descending trend. This descending trend will continue in a period time of future.