Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change

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• 作者：Xinhai Li (1)
  Huidong Tian (1)
  Yuan Wang (1)
  Renqiang Li (2)
  Zengming Song (2)
  Fengchun Zhang (3)
  Ming Xu (2)
  Dianmo Li (1)
  
• 关键词：BIOMOD ; Climate change ; Conservation action plans ; Range shift ; Vulnerability
• 刊名：Regional Environmental Change
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：August 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：13
• 期：4
• 页码：843-852
• 全文大小：705KB
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• 作者单位：Xinhai Li (1)
  Huidong Tian (1)
  Yuan Wang (1)
  Renqiang Li (2)
  Zengming Song (2)
  Fengchun Zhang (3)
  Ming Xu (2)
  Dianmo Li (1)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Beijing, 100101, China
  2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  3. Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing, 100035, China
  

文摘

We assessed the vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change, as a part of the project “Research on China’s National Biodiversity and Climate Change Strategy and Action Plans- Based on the China Species Information System, we selected comprehensive species as analysis targets, covering taxa including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and plants. We applied nine species distribution models in BIOMOD (a package of R software) to estimate the current (1991-010) ranges and predicted future (2081-100) ranges of these species, using six climate variables based on Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) and A1B emission scenario. The model results showed that different taxa might show diverse potential range shifts over time. The range sizes of half of the species (104 species) would decrease, and those of another half would increase. We predicted that the future remaining ranges (intersection of current and future ranges/current ranges) of 135 species would be less than 50?% of their current range sizes. Species that are both endemic and critically endangered would lose more of their range than others. In summary, the most vulnerable species are currently found on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, in the Hengduan Mountain Range, and southern China. Future action plans dealing with climate change in China should be prepared with consideration for vulnerable species and their habitats.