Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models

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• 作者：JianQi Sun (1)
  HuoPo Chen (1) (2)
  
• 关键词：typhoon prediction ; coupled general circulation model ; statistical downscaling ; multi ; model ensemble prediction ; DEMETER
• 刊名：Chinese Science Bulletin
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：November 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：56
• 期：32
• 页码：3474-3479
• 全文大小：815KB
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• 作者单位：JianQi Sun (1)
  HuoPo Chen (1) (2)
  
  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  
• ISSN：1861-9541

文摘

Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974-001 hindcasts obtained from the “Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction-(DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June–October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction.