Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

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• 作者：Chaofan Li ; Riyu Lu ; Buwen Dong
• 关键词：Western North Pacific ; Seasonal forecast ; Interdecadal change ; Air–sea interaction ; ENSEMBLES
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：7-8
• 页码：2435-2448
• 全文大小：3,857 KB
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• 作者单位：Chaofan Li (1)
  Riyu Lu (2)
  Buwen Dong (3)
  
  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China
  2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  3. National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.