Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s
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- 作者：Yali Zhu ; Tao Wang ; Huijun Wang
- 关键词：Anthropogenic forcing ; Natural decadal variability ; Global warming ; Surface temperature ; Geopotential height
- 刊名：Chinese Science Bulletin
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：March 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：61
- 期：5
- 页码：416-424
- 全文大小：4,110 KB
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Tao Wang (1) (2)
Huijun Wang (1) (2) (3)
1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
2. Climate Change Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
3. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China - 刊物主题：Science, general; Life Sciences, general; Physics, general; Chemistry/Food Science, general; Earth Sciences, general; Engineering, general;
- 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- ISSN：1861-9541
文摘
Global warming accelerated after the late 1970s and slowed down after the late 1990s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate. We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide \((\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2})\) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970s and 1990s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990s shift. The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions (negative-positive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) (53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO (33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) (PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 % (37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) effects for the late 1990s shift.