Spatial Interpolation of Ewert’s Index of Continentality in Poland

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• 作者：Mariusz Szymanowski ; Piotr Bednarczyk ; Maciej Kryza…
• 关键词：Ewert’s index of continentality ; spatial interpolation ; regression kriging ; geographically weighted regression ; Poland
• 刊名：Pure and Applied Geophysics
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：174
• 期：2
• 页码：623-642
• 全文大小：9534KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Geophysics/Geodesy;
• 出版者：Springer International Publishing
• ISSN：1420-9136
• 卷排序：174

文摘

The article presents methodological considerations on the spatial interpolation of Ewert’s index of continentality for Poland. The primary objective was to perform spatial interpolation and generate maps of the index combined with selection of an optimal interpolation method and validation of the use of the decision tree proposed by Szymanowski et al. (Meteorol Z 22:577–585, 2013). The analysis involved four selected years and a multi-year average of the period 1981–2010 and was based on data from 111 meteorological stations. Three regression models: multiple linear regression (MLR), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and mixed geographically weighted regression were used in the analysis as well as extensions of two of them to the residual kriging form. The regression models were compared demonstrating a better fit of the local model and, hence, the non-stationarity of the spatial process. However, the decisive role in the selection of the interpolator was assigned to the possibility of extension of the regression model to residual kriging. A key element here is the autocorrelation of the regression residuals, which proved to be significant for MLR and irrelevant for GWR. This resulted in exclusion of geographically weighted regression kriging from further analysis. The multiple linear regression kriging was found as the optimal interpolator. This was confirmed by cross validation combined with an analysis of improvement of the model in accordance with the criterion of the mean absolute error (MAE). The results obtained facilitate modification of the scheme of selection of an optimal interpolator and development of guidelines for automation of interpolation of Ewert’s index of continentality for Poland.