Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty

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• 作者：Michail Chronopoulos ; Verena Hagspiel ; Stein-Erik Fleten
• 关键词：Investment analysis ; Capacity sizing ; Flexibility ; Real options
• 刊名：OR Spectrum
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：39
• 期：2
• 页码：447-472
• 全文大小：
• 刊物主题：Operation Research/Decision Theory; Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control; Optimization; Business and Management, general;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-6304
• 卷排序：39

文摘

The relationship between uncertainty and managerial flexibility is particularly crucial in addressing capital projects. We consider a firm that can invest in a project in either a single (lumpy investment) or multiple stages (stepwise investment) under price uncertainty and has discretion over not only the time of investment but also the size of the project. We confirm that if the capacity of a project is fixed and the investment premium associated with stepwise investment is positive, then lumpy investment becomes more valuable than a stepwise investment strategy under high price uncertainty. By contrast, if a firm has discretion over capacity, then we show that the stepwise investment strategy always dominates that of lumpy investment. In addition, we show that the total amount of installed capacity under a stepwise investment strategy is always greater than that under lumpy investment.