Income volatility: whom you trade with matters

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• 作者：Marion Jansen ; Carolina Lennon ; Roberta Piermartini
• 关键词：Income volatility ; Geographical export diversification ; Openness ; C23 ; F43 ; O19
• 刊名：Review of World Economics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：152
• 期：1
• 页码：127-146
• 全文大小：433 KB
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• 作者单位：Marion Jansen (1)
  Carolina Lennon (3) (4) (5)
  Roberta Piermartini (2)
  
  1. International Trade Centre, Geneva, Switzerland
  3. World Bank, Washington, DC, USA
  4. International Labour Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
  5. WU (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien), Vienna, Austria
  2. Economic Research and Statistics Division, World Trade Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  
• 刊物主题：International Economics; European Integration; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics; Economic Policy; Financial Economics;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1610-2886

文摘

Using a dataset of 165 countries over a period from 1971 to 2010, this paper studies how income volatility abroad affects income volatility at home. Relying on the Markowitz–Tobin definition of portfolio risk to international trade, we disentangle how volatility at home depends on volatility in individual trading partners and on the correlation among trading partners’ business cycles. As it has to be expected when entry new markets yields costs, we find that the correlation among trading partners’ business cycles matters more than the volatility of individual trading partners. These findings can provide useful guidance for export promotion strategies. Keywords Income volatility Geographical export diversification Openness