Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success
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- 作者：Jeremy S. Fried ; J. Keith Gilless ; William J. Riley ; Tadashi J. Moody ; Clara Simon de Blas ; Katharine Hayhoe ; Max Moritz ; Scott Stephens and Margaret Torn
- 刊名：Climatic Change
- 出版年：2008
- 出版时间：March, 2008
- 年：2008
- 卷：87
- 期：Supplement 1
- 页码：251-264
- 全文大小：171.7 KB
- 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Meteorology and Climatology - 出版者：Springer Netherlands
- ISSN：1573-1480
文摘
This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes.