Predictors of progression to chronic dialysis in survivors of severe acute kidney injury: a competing risk study

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Ziv Harel (1) (2)
  Chaim M Bell (3)
  Stephanie N Dixon (4) (5)
  Eric McArthur (4) (5)
  Matthew T James (6)
  Amit X Garg (4) (5)
  Shai Harel (1)
  Samuel Silver (1)
  Ron Wald (1) (2)
  
  1. Division of Nephrology ; St Michael鈥檚 Hospital ; University of Toronto ; 61 Queen Street ; 7th floor ; M5C 2 T2 ; ON ; Toronto ; Canada
  2. Department of Medicine and Keenan Research Centre ; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael鈥檚da ; Kragujevac ; Canada
  3. Department of Medicine ; Mount Sinai Hospital ; University of Toronto ; Toronto ; Canada
  4. Institute of Clinical Evaluative Sciences ; Kidney ; Dialysis ; Transplantation ; London ; Ontario ; Canada
  5. Division of Nephrology ; London Health Sciences Centre ; University of Western Ontario ; London ; Canada
  6. Department of Medicine ; Division of Nephrology ; University of Calgary ; Calgary ; Alberta ; Canada
  
• 关键词：Acute kidney injury ; Predictors ; Chronic dialysis ; Competing risk
• 刊名：BMC Nephrology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：December 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：15
• 期：1
• 全文大小：485 KB
• 参考文献：1. Hsu, RK, McCulloch, CE, Dudley, RA, Lo, LJ, Hsu, CY (2013) Temporal changes in incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI. J Am Soc Nephrol 24: pp. 37-42 CrossRef
  2. Siew, ED, Peterson, JF, Eden, SK, Hung, AM, Speroff, T, Ikizler, TA, Matheny, ME (2012) Outpatient nephrology referral rates after acute kidney injury. J Am Soc Nephrol 23: pp. 305-312 CrossRef
  3. Lo, LJ, Go, AS, Chertow, GM, McCulloch, CE, Fan, D, Ordonez, JD, Hsu, CY (2009) Dialysis-requiring acute renal failure increases the risk of progressive chronic kidney disease. Kidney Int 76: pp. 893-899 CrossRef
  4. Wald, R, Quinn, RR, Adhikari, NK, Burns, KE, Friedrich, JO, Garg, AX, Harel, Z, Hladunewich, MA, Luo, J, Mamdani, M, Perl, J, Ray, JG (2012) Risk of chronic dialysis and death following acute kidney injury. Am J Med 125: pp. 585-593 CrossRef
  5. Wald, R, Quinn, RR, Luo, J, Li, P, Scales, DC, Mamdani, MM, Ray, JG (2009) Chronic dialysis and death among survivors of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis. JAMA 302: pp. 1179-1185 CrossRef
  6. Fliser, D, Laville, M, Covic, A, Fouque, D, Vanholder, R, Juillard, L, Van Biesen, W (2012) A European Renal Best Practice (ERBP) position statement on the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) clinical practice guidelines on acute kidney injury: part 1: definitions, conservative management and contrast-induced nephropathy. Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation: official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association 27: pp. 4263-4272 CrossRef
  7. Goldstein, SL, Jaber, BL, Faubel, S, Chawla, LS (2013) AKI transition of care: a potential opportunity to detect and prevent CKD. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 8: pp. 476-483 CrossRef
  8. Susantitaphong, P, Cruz, DN, Cerda, J, Abulfaraj, M, Alqahtani, F, Koulouridis, I, Jaber, BL (2013) World incidence of AKI: a meta-analysis. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 8: pp. 1482-1493 CrossRef
  9. Charlson, ME, Pompei, P, Ales, KL, MacKenzie, CR (1987) A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis 40: pp. 373-383 CrossRef
  10. Quan, H, Sundararajan, V, Halfon, P, Fong, A, Burnand, B, Luthi, JC, Saunders, LD, Beck, CA, Feasby, TE, Ghali, WA (2005) Coding algorithms for defining comorbidities in ICD-9-CM and ICD-10 administrative data. Med Care 43: pp. 1130-1139 CrossRef
  11. Harel, Z, Wald, R, Bargman, JM, Mamdani, M, Etchells, E, Garg, AX, Ray, JG, Luo, J, Li, P, Quinn, RR, Forster, A, Perl, J, Bell, CM (2013) Nephrologist follow-up improves all-cause mortality of severe acute kidney injury survivors. Kidney Int 83: pp. 901-908 CrossRef
  12. Wald, R, Shariff, SZ, Adhikari, NK, Bagshaw, SM, Burns, KE, Friedrich, JO, Garg, AX, Harel, Z, Kitchlu, A, Ray, JG (2014) The association between renal replacement therapy modality and long-term outcomes among critically ill adults with acute kidney injury: a retrospective cohort study*. Crit Care Med 42: pp. 868-877 CrossRef
  13. Go, AS, Parikh, CR, Ikizler, TA, Coca, S, Siew, ED, Chinchilli, VM, Hsu, CY, Garg, AX, Zappitelli, M, Liu, KD, Reeves, WB, Ghahramani, N, Devarajan, P, Faulkner, GB, Tan, TC, Kimmel, PL, Eggers, P, Stokes, JB (2010) The assessment, serial evaluation, and subsequent sequelae of acute kidney injury (ASSESS-AKI) study: design and methods. BMC Nephrol 11: pp. 22
  14. Fine, JP, Gray, RJ (1999) A proportional hazards model for the sub stitution of a competing risk. J Am Stat Assoc 94: pp. 496-509 CrossRef
  15. Wolbers, M, Koller, MT, Witteman, JC, Steyerberg, EW (2009) Prognostic models with competing risks: methods and application to coronary risk prediction. Epidemiology 20: pp. 555-561 CrossRef
  16. Coca, SG, Singanamala, S, Parikh, CR (2012) Chronic kidney disease after acute kidney injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Kidney Int 81: pp. 442-448 CrossRef
  17. Stads, S, Fortrie, G, van Bommel, J, Zietse, R, Betjes, MG (2013) Impaired kidney function at hospital discharge and long-term renal and overall survival in patients who received CRRT. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 8: pp. 1284-1291 CrossRef
  18. Ishani, A, Xue, JL, Himmelfarb, J, Eggers, PW, Kimmel, PL, Molitoris, BA, Collins, AJ (2009) Acute kidney injury increases risk of ESRD among elderly. J Am Soc Nephrol 20: pp. 223-228 CrossRef
  19. Ishani, A, Nelson, D, Clothier, B, Schult, T, Nugent, S, Greer, N, Slinin, Y, Ensrud, KE (2011) The magnitude of acute serum creatinine increase after cardiac surgery and the risk of chronic kidney disease, progression of kidney disease, and death. Arch Intern Med 171: pp. 226-233 CrossRef
  20. Hsu, CY, Chertow, GM, McCulloch, CE, Fan, D, Ordonez, JD, Go, AS (2009) Nonrecovery of kidney function and death after acute on chronic renal failure. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 4: pp. 891-898 CrossRef
  21. Pannu, N, James, M, Hemmelgarn, BR, Dong, J, Tonelli, M, Klarenbach, S (2011) Modification of outcomes after acute kidney injury by the presence of CKD. Am J Kidney Dis 58: pp. 206-213 CrossRef
  22. Amdur, RL, Chawla, LS, Amodeo, S, Kimmel, PL, Palant, CE (2009) Outcomes following diagnosis of acute renal failure in U.S. veterans: focus on acute tubular necrosis. Kidney Int 76: pp. 1089-1097 CrossRef
  23. Basile, DP (2007) The endothelial cell in ischemic acute kidney injury: implications for acute and chronic function. Kidney Int 72: pp. 151-156 CrossRef
  24. Spurgeon-Pechman, KR, Donohoe, DL, Mattson, DL, Lund, H, James, L, Basile, DP (2007) Recovery from acute renal failure predisposes hypertension and secondary renal disease in response to elevated sodium. Am J Physiol Renal Physiol 293: pp. F269-F278 CrossRef
  25. Chawla, LS, Amdur, RL, Amodeo, S, Kimmel, PL, Palant, CE (2011) The severity of acute kidney injury predicts progression to chronic kidney disease. Kidney Int 79: pp. 1361-1369 CrossRef
  26. Klag, MJ, Whelton, PK, Randall, BL, Neaton, JD, Brancati, FL, Ford, CE, Shulman, NB, Stamler, J (1996) Blood pressure and end-stage renal disease in men. N Engl J Med 334: pp. 13-18 CrossRef
  27. Ravera, M, Re, M, Deferrari, L, Vettoretti, S, Deferrari, G (2006) Importance of blood pressure control in chronic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol 17: pp. S98-S103 CrossRef
  28. Chawla, LS, Kimmel, PL (2012) Acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease: an integrated clinical syndrome. Kidney Int 82: pp. 516-524 CrossRef
  29. Schainuck, LI, Striker, GE, Cutler, RE, Benditt, EP (1970) Structural-functional correlations in renal disease. II. The correlations. Hum Pathol 1: pp. 631-641 CrossRef
  30. Arroyo, V, Fernandez, J (2011) Management of hepatorenal syndrome in patients with cirrhosis. Nature reviews. Nephrology 7: pp. 517-526
  31. Chen, YW, Chang, CW, Wang, TE, Wu, CJ, Chen, HH (2012) Is an estimated glomerular filtration rate better than creatinine to be incorporated into the end-stage liver disease score?. World J Hepatol 4: pp. 291-298 CrossRef
  32. Tsien, CD, Rabie, R, Wong, F (2013) Acute kidney injury in decompensated cirrhosis. Gut 62: pp. 131-137 CrossRef
  33. Levey, AS, Beto, JA, Coronado, BE, Eknoyan, G, Foley, RN, Kasiske, BL, Klag, MJ, Mailloux, LU, Manske, CL, Meyer, KB, Parfrey, PS, Pfeffer, MA, Wenger, NK, Wilson, PW, Wright, JT (1998) Controlling the epidemic of cardiovascular disease in chronic renal disease: what do we know? What do we need to learn? Where do we go from here? National Kidney Foundation Task Force on Cardiovascular Disease. Am J Kidney Dis 32: pp. 853-906 CrossRef
  34. James, MT, Ghali, WA, Tonelli, M, Faris, P, Knudtson, ML, Pannu, N, Klarenbach, SW, Manns, BJ, Hemmelgarn, BR (2010) Acute kidney injury following coronary angiography is associated with a long-term decline in kidney function. Kidney Int 78: pp. 803-809 CrossRef
  35. Noordzij, M, Leffondre, K, van Stralen, KJ, Zoccali, C, Dekker, FW, Jager, KJ (2013) When do we need competing risks methods for survival analysis in nephrology?. Nephrol Dial Transplant 28: pp. 2670-2677 CrossRef
  36. Vlasschaert, ME, Bejaimal, SA, Hackam, DG, Quinn, R, Cuerden, MS, Oliver, MJ, Iansavichus, A, Sultan, N, Mills, A, Garg, AX (2011) Validity of administrative database coding for kidney disease: a systematic review. Am J Kidney Dis 57: pp. 29-43 CrossRef
  37. The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2369/15/114/prepub
  
• 刊物主题：Nephrology; Internal Medicine;
• 出版者：BioMed Central
• ISSN：1471-2369

文摘

Background Survivors of acute kidney injury are at an increased risk of developing irreversible deterioration in kidney function and in some cases, the need for chronic dialysis. We aimed to determine predictors of chronic dialysis and death among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury. Methods We used linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to identify patients who were discharged from hospital after an episode of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis and remained free of further dialysis for at least 90 days after discharge between 1996 and 2009. Follow-up extended until March 31, 2011. The primary outcome was progression to chronic dialysis. Predictors for this outcome were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing risk approach was used to calculate absolute risk. Results We identified 4 383 patients with acute kidney injury requiring temporary in-hospital dialysis who survived to discharge. After a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, 356 (8%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 1475 (34%) died. The cumulative risk of chronic dialysis was 13.5% by the Kaplan-Meier method, and 10.3% using a competing risk approach. After accounting for the competing risk of death, previous nephrology consultation (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.58), a history of chronic kidney disease (sHR3.86; 95% CI 2.99-4.98), a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (sHR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15/per unit) and pre-existing hypertension (sHR 1.82; 95% CI 1.28-2.58) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to chronic dialysis. Conclusions Among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury who initially become dialysis independent, the subsequent need for chronic dialysis is predicted by pre-existing kidney disease, hypertension and global comorbidity. This information can identify patients at high risk of progressive kidney disease who may benefit from closer surveillance after cessation of the acute phase of illness.