Die Validit?t dynamisch-ver?nderbarer Risikofaktoren bei der Vorhersage einschl?giger Rückf?lle p?dosexueller Straft?ter

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Martin Rettenberger (1)
  Anna Matthes (2)
  Frank Schilling (1)
  Reinhard Eher (1) (3)
  
• 关键词：Sexualstraft?ter ; Kriminalprognose ; Validit?t ; Static ; 99 ; Stable ; 2000 ; Stable ; 2007 ; Sexual offender ; Risk assessment ; Validity ; Static ; 99 ; Stable ; 2000 ; Stable ; 2007
• 刊名：Forensische Psychiatrie, Psychologie, Kriminologie
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：February 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：5
• 期：1
• 页码：45-53
• 全文大小：363KB
• 参考文献：1. Andrews DA, Bonta J (2006) The psychology of criminal conduct. Anderson, Cincinnati
  2. Archer RP, Buffington-Vollum JK, Stredny RV, Handel RW (2006) A survey of psychological test use patterns among forensic psychologists. J Pers Assess 87:84-4 CrossRef
  3. Barbaree HE, Langton CM, Peacock EJ (2006) Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders. Sex Abuse 18:423-40 CrossRef
  4. Cohen J (1992) A power primer. Psychol Bull 112:155-59 CrossRef
  5. Craig LA, Browne KD, Beech AR (2008) Assessing risk in sex offenders -A practitioner’s guide. Wiley, Chichester CrossRef
  6. Dahle K-P (2005) Psychologische Kriminalprognose. Centaurus, Herbolzheim
  7. Dahle K-P (2007) Methodische Grundlagen der Kriminalprognose. Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol 1:101-10 CrossRef
  8. Dahle K-P, Schneider V, Ziethen F (2007) Standardisierte Instrumente zur Kriminalprognose. Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol 1:15-6 CrossRef
  9. Eher R, Rettenberger M, Schilling F, Pf?fflin F (2008) Validit?t oder praktischer Nutzen? Rückfallvorhersagen mittels Static-99 und SORAG. Eine prospektive Rückfallstudie an 275 Sexualstraft?tern. Recht Psychiatr 26:79-8
  10. Eher R (2009) Zu den Aufgaben der Begutachtungs- und Evaluationsstelle für Gewalt- und Sexualstraft?ter im ?sterreichischen Strafvollzug -Grunds?tzliches, Ergebnisse und Ausblick. Kriminalpaedagog Prax 37:9-4
  11. Eher R, Rettenberger M, Matthes A (2009) Aktuarische Prognose bei Sexualstraft?tern: Ergebnisse einer prospektiven Studie an 785 T?tern unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von relevanten T?tergruppen und Rückfallkategorie. Monatsschr Kriminol 92:18-7
  12. Endrass J, Urbaniok F, Held L, Vetter S, Rossegger A (2009) Accuracy of the Static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland. Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol 53:482-90 CrossRef
  13. Fiedler P (2004) Sexuelle Orientierung und sexuelle Abweichung. Beltz, Weinheim
  14. Fleiss JL (1981) Statistical methods for rates and proportions. Wiley, New York
  15. Fleiss JL, Williams JBW, Dubro AF (1986) The logistic regression analysis of psychiatric data. J Psychiatr Res 20:195-09 CrossRef
  16. Grubin D (1998) Sex offending against children: understanding the risk. Police Research Series, Paper 99. Home Office, London
  17. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143:29-6
  18. Hanson RK (1997) The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism. (User Report No. 1997-04). Department of the Solicitor General of Canada, Ottawa
  19. Hanson RK, Thornton D (2000) Improving risk assessment for sex offenders: a comparison of three actuarial scales. Law Hum Behav 24:119-36 CrossRef
  20. Hanson RK, Harris AJR (2001) A structured approach to evaluating change among sexual offenders. Sex Abuse 13:105-22 CrossRef
  21. Hanson RK, Harris AJR, Scott TL, Helmus LMD (2007) Assessing the risk of sexual offenders on community supervision: the dynamic supervision project. (User Report No. 2007-05). Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Canada
  22. Hanson RK (2008) What statistics should we use to report predictive accuracy? Crime Scene 14:15-7
  23. Hanson RK, Bourgon G, Helmus L, Hodgson S (2009) The principles of effective correctional treatment also apply to sexual offenders: a meta-analysis. Crim Justice Behav 36:865-91 CrossRef
  24. Hanson RK, Morton-Bourgon K (2009) The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: a meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychol Assess 21:1-1 CrossRef
  25. Harkins L, Beech AR (2007) A review of the factors that can influence the effectiveness of sexual offender treatment: risk, need, responsivity, and process issues. Aggress Violent Behav 12:615-27 CrossRef
  26. Harris A, Phenix A, Hanson RK, Thornton D (2003) Static-99 coding rules revised -2003. Department of the Solicitor General of Canada, Ottawa
  27. Helmus L (2009) Re-norming Static-99 recidivism estimates: exploring base rate variability across sex offender samples. Unver?ffentlichte Masterarbeit, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  28. Helmus L, Hanson RK, Thornton D (2009) Reporting Static-99 in light of new research on recidivism norms. Forum 21:38-5
  29. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York CrossRef
  30. Hunsley J (2003) Introduction to the special section on incremental validity and utility in clinical assessment. Psychol Assess 15:443-45 CrossRef
  31. Hunsley J, Meyer GJ (2003) The incremental validity of psychological testing and assessment: conceptual, methodological, and statistical issues. Psychol Assess 15:446-55 CrossRef
  32. Lussier P, Deslauriers-Varin N, Ratel T (2010) A descriptive profile of high-risk sex offenders under intensive supervision in the province of British Columbia, Canada. Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol 54:71-1 CrossRef
  33. Mann RE, Hanson RK, Thornton D (2010) Assessing risk for sexual recidivism: some proposals on the nature of psychologically meaningful risk factors. Sex Abuse 22:191-17 CrossRef
  34. Mossman D (1994) Assessing predictions of violence: being accurate about accuracy. J Consult Clin Psychol 62:783-92 CrossRef
  35. Muche R, Ring C, Ziegler C (2005) Entwicklung und Validierung von Prognosemodellen auf Basis der logistischen Regression. Shaker, Aachen
  36. Nedopil N (2005) Prognosen in der Forensischen Psychiatrie. Ein Handbuch für die Praxis. Pabst, Lengerich
  37. Olver ME, Wong SC, Nicholaichuk T, Gordon A (2007) The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change. Psychol Assess 19:318-29 CrossRef
  38. Quinsey VL, Harris GT, Rice ME, Cormier C (2006) Violent offenders: appraising and managing risk. American Psychological Association, Washington CrossRef
  39. Rehder U, Suhling S (2008) Rückf?lligkeit haftentlassener Sexualstraft?ter. Monatsschr Kriminol 91:250-68
  40. Rettenberger M, Eher R (2006) Die deutsche übersetzung des Static-99 zur aktuarischen Kriminalprognose verurteilter Sexualstraft?ter. Monatsschr Kriminol 89:352-65
  41. Rettenberger M, Gaunersdorfer K, Schilling F, Eher R (2009) Die Vorhersage der Rückf?lligkeit entlassener Sexualstraft?ter mittels des Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) und dessen Screening Version (SORAG-SV). Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol 3:318-28 CrossRef
  42. Rettenberger M, Matthes A, Boer DP, Eher R (2010) Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes. Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol 53:169-86 CrossRef
  43. Rice ME, Harris GT (1995) Violent recidivism: assessing predictive validity. J Consult Clin Psychol 63:737-48 CrossRef
  44. Rice ME, Harris GT (2005) Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen’s d, and r. Law Hum Behav 29:615-20 CrossRef
  45. Seto MC (2005) Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders. Psychol Assess 17:156-67 CrossRef
  46. Stadtland C, Hollweg M, Kleindienst N, Dietl J, Reich U, Nedopil N (2005) Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments. J Forensic Psychiatr Psychol 16:92-08 CrossRef
  47. Urbaniok F, Rinne T, Held L, Rossegger A, Endrass J (2008) Forensische Risikokalkulationen: Grundlegende methodische Aspekte zur Beurteilung der Anwendbarkeit und Validit?t verschiedener Verfahren. Fortschr Neurol Psychiatr 76:470-77 CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：Martin Rettenberger (1)
  Anna Matthes (2)
  Frank Schilling (1)
  Reinhard Eher (1) (3)
  
  1. Begutachtungs- und Evaluationsstelle für Gewalt- und Sexualstraft?ter (BEST), Gerichtsgasse?6, 1210, Wien, ?sterreich
  2. Jugendanstalt Hameln, Tündernsche Str.?50, 31789, Hameln, Deutschland
  3. Abteilung für Psychosomatische Medizin und Psychotherapie, Sektion Forensische Psychotherapie, Universit?tsklinikum Ulm, Am Hochstr???8, 89081, Ulm, Deutschland
  

文摘

The present study examines the predictive validity of dynamic risk factors for the prediction of sexual recidivism in a sample of pedosexual offenders (N--35) released from the Austrian prison system between 2002 and 2005. Static-99 was used to rate static risk factors and in order to measure dynamic risk factors Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 were applied. In addition to the demonstration of results about the interrater reliability the results about the predictive and incremental validity of the dynamic risk assessment are presented. After a mean follow-up period of 5? years Static-99, Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 showed excellent interrater reliability and good predictive validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism. Furthermore, Stable-2007 showed better predictive accuracy than its predecessor and added incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99.