Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

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• 作者：Bin Wang (1) (2)
  So-Young Yim (2)
  June-Yi Lee (2) (5)
  Jian Liu (3)
  Kyung-Ja Ha (4)
  
• 关键词：Asian ; Australian monsoon ; Global warming ; Future change ; CMIP5 ; Multi ; model mean ; Interannual variation ; ENSO ; monsoon relationship
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：January 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：42
• 期：1-2
• 页码：83-100
• 全文大小：1,611 KB
• 作者单位：Bin Wang (1) (2)
  So-Young Yim (2)
  June-Yi Lee (2) (5)
  Jian Liu (3)
  Kyung-Ja Ha (4)
  
  1. Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96825, USA
  2. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96825, USA
  5. University of Hawaii/IPRC, POST Bldg, Room 409E, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA
  3. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
  4. Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5?%/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0?%/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4?%/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6?%/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean-favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3?%/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4?%/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10?%. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.