Measurement and scenario simulation of effect of urbanisation on regional CO2 emissions based on UEC-SD model: A case study in Liaoning Province, China

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• 作者：Fujia Li ; Suocheng Dong ; Shantong Li ; Zehong Li ; Yu Li
• 关键词：urbanisation ; CO2 emissions ; scenario simulation ; Urbanisation ; Energy Consumption ; CO2 Emissions System Dynamics (UEC ; SD) model ; Liaoning Province ; China
• 刊名：Chinese Geographical Science
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：June 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：25
• 期：3
• 页码：350-360
• 全文大小：1,275 KB
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• 作者单位：Fujia Li (1) (2)
  Suocheng Dong (2)
  Shantong Li (1)
  Zehong Li (2)
  Yu Li (2)
  
  1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
  2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  
• 刊物主题：Geography (general);
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1993-064X

文摘

Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ‘Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO₂ Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD)-model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO₂ emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO₂ emissions of three urbanisation scenarios (low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO₂ emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO₂ emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO₂ emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO₂ emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO₂ emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.