Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production

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• 作者：Guolin Yao ; Mark D. Staples ; Robert Malina ; Wallace E. Tyner
• 关键词：Stochastic techno ; economic analysis ; Breakeven price distributions ; Stochastic dominance ; Aviation biofuel ; Alcohol ; to ; jet ; Monte Carlo simulation
• 刊名：Biotechnology for Biofuels
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：December 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：10
• 期：1
• 全文大小：2449KB
• 刊物类别：Chemistry and Materials Science
• 刊物主题：Biotechnology; Plant Breeding/Biotechnology; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Renewable and Green Energy; Renewable and Green Energy; Microbiology;
• 出版者：BioMed Central
• ISSN：1754-6834
• 卷排序：10

文摘

BackgroundAlcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm.