North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
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- 作者：Richard Grotjahn ; Robert Black ; Ruby Leung ; Michael F. Wehner…
- 关键词：Large scale meteorological patterns for temperature extremes ; Heat waves ; Hot spells ; Cold air outbreaks ; Cold spells ; Statistics of temperature extremes ; Dynamics of heat waves ; Dynamics of cold air outbreaks ; Dynamical modeling of temperature extremes ; Statistical modeling of extremes ; Trends in temperature extremes
- 刊名：Climate Dynamics
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：February 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：46
- 期：3-4
- 页码：1151-1184
- 全文大小：9,366 KB
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Robert Black (2)
Ruby Leung (3)
Michael F. Wehner (4)
Mathew Barlow (5)
Mike Bosilovich (6)
Alexander Gershunov (7)
William J. Gutowski Jr. (8)
John R. Gyakum (9)
Richard W. Katz (10)
Yun-Young Lee (1)
Young-Kwon Lim (11)
Prabhat (4)
1. Atmospheric Science Program, Department of L.A.W.R., University of California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA, 95616, USA
2. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA, 30332-0340, USA
3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99352, USA
4. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
5. University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, 01854, USA
6. NASA GSFC Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
7. Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography (CASPO) Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
8. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, USA
9. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A 0B9, Canada
10. Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
11. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/I.M. Systems Group, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA - 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Geophysics and Geodesy
Meteorology and Climatology
Oceanography - 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
- ISSN：1432-0894
文摘
The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions. Keywords Large scale meteorological patterns for temperature extremes Heat waves Hot spells Cold air outbreaks Cold spells Statistics of temperature extremes Dynamics of heat waves Dynamics of cold air outbreaks Dynamical modeling of temperature extremes Statistical modeling of extremes Trends in temperature extremes