Potential overwintering boundary and voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming

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• 作者：Chaoxing Hu ; Maolin Hou ; Guoshu Wei ; Baoku Shi ; Jianli Huang
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：September 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：132
• 期：2
• 页码：337-352
• 全文大小：2,743 KB
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• 作者单位：Chaoxing Hu (1)
  Maolin Hou (1)
  Guoshu Wei (2)
  Baoku Shi (1)
  Jianli Huang (1)
  
  1. State Key Laboratory for Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100193, China
  2. College of Plant Protection, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding, 071001, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Meteorology and Climatology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1480

文摘

The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (St?l) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper’s overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961-990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper voltinism will increase by <0.5, 0.5-.0 and 1.0-.4 generations in northern, central and southern China, respectively, in 2021-050. Our results suggest that the brown planthopper will overwinter in a much larger region and will produce more generations under future climate warming scenarios. As a result, the planthopper will exert an even greater threat to China’s rice production in the future. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.-007/?s10584-015-1427-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.