A Comparative Analysis of the Relative Efficacy of Vector-Control Strategies Against Dengue Fever

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• 作者：Marcos Amaku (1)
  Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho (2)
  Silvia Martorano Raimundo (2)
  Luis Fernandez Lopez (2) (3)
  Marcelo Nascimento Burattini (2)
  Eduardo Massad (2) (4)
  
• 关键词：Dengue ; Basic reproduction number ; Force of infection ; Sensitivity analysis ; Vector control
• 刊名：Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：March 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：76
• 期：3
• 页码：697-717
• 全文大小：635 KB
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• 作者单位：Marcos Amaku (1)
  Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho (2)
  Silvia Martorano Raimundo (2)
  Luis Fernandez Lopez (2) (3)
  Marcelo Nascimento Burattini (2)
  Eduardo Massad (2) (4)
  
  1. School of Veterinary Medicine, University of S?o Paulo, Av. Prof. Orlando Marques de Paiva, 87, Cidade Universitária, S?o Paulo, SP, 05508-270, Brazil
  2. LIM 01-HCFMUSP, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, S?o Paulo, SP, 01246-903, Brazil
  3. CIARA, Florida International University, Miami, USA
  4. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London University, Keppel Street, London, W1C 7HT, UK
  
• ISSN：1522-9602

文摘

Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model’s variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies, adulticide application is the most effective, followed by the reduction of the exposure to mosquito bites, locating and destroying breeding places and, finally, larvicides. Current vector-control methods are concentrated on mechanical destruction of mosquitoes-breeding places. Our results suggest that reducing the contact between vector and hosts (biting rates) is as efficient as the logistically difficult but very efficient adult mosquito’s control.