A storm modeling system as an advanced tool in prediction of well organized slowly moving convective cloud system and early warning of severe weather risk

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• 作者：Vlado Spiridonov (1)
  Mladjen Curic (2)
  
  1. Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics ; Institute of Physics ; Skopje ; Macedonia
  2. Institute of Meteorology ; University of Belgrade ; Belgrade ; Serbia
  
• 关键词：WRF ; NMM ; convective cloud model ; heavy rainfall ; flash flooding ; early warning ; severe weather risk
• 刊名：Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：51
• 期：1
• 页码：61-75
• 全文大小：5,609 KB
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  
• 出版者：Korean Meteorological Society, co-published with Springer
• ISSN：1976-7951

文摘

Short-range prediction of precipitation is a critical input to flood prediction and hence the accuracy of flood warnings. Since most of the intensive processes come from convective clouds-the primary aim is to forecast these small-scale atmospheric processes. One characteristic pattern of organized group of convective clouds consist of a line of deep convection resulted in the repeated passage of heavy-rain-producing convective cells over NW part of Macedonia along the line. This slowly moving convective system produced extreme local rainfall and hailfall in urban Skopje city. A 3-d cloud model is used to simulate the main storm characteristic (e.g., structure, intensity, evolution) and the main physical processes responsible for initiation of heavy rainfall and hailfall. The model showed a good performance in producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall event than is possible with current operational system. The output results give a good initial input for developing appropriate tools such as flooding indices and potential risk mapping for interpreting and presenting the predictions so that they enhance operational flood prediction capabilities and warnings of severe weather risk of weather services. Convective scale model-even for a single case used has proved significant benefits in several aspects (initiation of convection, storm structure and evolution and precipitation). The storm-scale model (grid spacing-1 km) is capable of producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall events than is possible with current operational systems based on model with grid spacing 15 km.