Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

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• 作者：Guillaume Marois ; Alain Bélanger
• 关键词：Projection ; Population ; Small area ; Microsimulation ; Contextual factors ; Montreal
• 刊名：Population and Environment
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：December 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：37
• 期：2
• 页码：131-156
• 全文大小：4,505 KB
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• 作者单位：Guillaume Marois (1)
  Alain Bélanger (1)
  
  1. INRS -Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, 385 rue Sherbrooke Est, Montreal, QC, H2X 1E3, Canada
  
• 刊物主题：Demography; Environment, general; Population Economics; Public Health; Sociology, general;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-7810

文摘

The objective of this paper was to project the population of the Montreal Metropolitan Community’s municipalities over the 2006-031 period and assess the effects of changes to urban planning on the expected spatial distribution of the population. For this purpose, we develop a microsimulation model that performs small-area population projections at a municipal level. This model, called local demographic simulations, takes into account local contextual variables such as the expected number of new housing units to be built. We then compare the results from three scenarios with different constraints on the planned residential development of municipalities. We show that although urban sprawl cannot be avoided, increasing the development potential of the central area can slow it. Results also suggest that the age structure of the central area is not significantly affected by different mobility patterns. Keywords Projection Population Small area Microsimulation Contextual factors Montreal