Development and application of a real-time loss estimation framework for Portugal

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• 作者：Vitor Silva ; Mário Marques ; José Miguel Castro…
• 关键词：Earthquake losses ; Real ; time loss assessment ; Vulnerability ; Exposure
• 刊名：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：September 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：13
• 期：9
• 页码：2493-2516
• 全文大小：5,322 KB
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• 作者单位：Vitor Silva (1)
  Mário Marques (2)
  José Miguel Castro (2)
  Humberto Varum (2)
  
  1. Civil Engineering Department, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
  2. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Hydrogeology
  Structural Geology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1456

文摘

Portugal has its past marked by the occurrence of very destructive earthquakes. In the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake, more than 50?% of the building stock was heavily damaged or destroyed and about 10?% of the population in Lisbon perished. In the beginning of the last century, a moderate event of magnitude 6.0?Mw struck the village of Benavente, causing 46 fatalities and damaging more than 3000 dwellings. The Portuguese building stock in highly populated centres is characterized by a large fraction of masonry buildings, which typically have a higher seismic vulnerability. For these reasons, it is clear that a reliable and accurate platform for damage estimation based on deterministic earthquake scenarios is fundamental, in order to create adequate post-disaster response plans, or to understand which structure types are contributing to the human and economic losses. This study provides an overview of the initial development of this framework for Portugal, as well as a description of the components and input models required for the generation of the seismic input and estimation of damage. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the platform, two seismic events were considered to assess structural damage throughout mainland Portugal. This framework has been established at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto. It allows earthquake engineers and seismic risk modelers to access damage information and to launch calculations of losses for scenario events. The products can also be of interest to experts and decision makers, who may wish to consider specific types of outputs such as the distribution of building damage, fatalities and the number of homeless.