Determination of the distribution of flood forecasting error
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- 作者：Junhong Zhang (1) (2)
Lu Chen (3) (4)
Vijay P. Singh (4)
Hongwen Cao (1)
Dangwei Wang (1) - 关键词：Flood forecasting error ; Probability distribution function ; Three Gorges Reservoir ; Muma River
- 刊名：Natural Hazards
- 出版年：2015
- 出版时间：January 2015
- 年：2015
- 卷：75
- 期：2
- 页码：1389-1402
- 全文大小：1,770 KB
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Lu Chen (3) (4)
Vijay P. Singh (4)
Hongwen Cao (1)
Dangwei Wang (1)
1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of River Basin Water Cycle, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China
2. College of Chemistry and Materials Science, Wuhan, 430074, China
3. College of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China
4. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University (TAMU), College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA - ISSN：1573-0840
文摘
Flood forecasting plays an essential role in enhancing the safety of residents downstream and preventing or reducing economic losses. One critical issue in flood risk assessment is the determination of the probability distribution of forecast errors. Several investigations, which have been carried out to analyze the influence of the uncertainty in real-time operation or water resources management, assumed that the relative forecast error was approximately normally distributed. This study investigates whether the flood forecast error follows the normal distribution. Several distributions were fitted to the flood error series, and their performances were analyzed using the data from Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and Muma River. Then, the most appropriate distribution was selected. Results show that the assumption of normal distribution is not justified for the flood forecast error series of TGR and Muma River. The use of normal distribution for estimating flood risk may lead to incorrect results.