CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan

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• 作者：H. Tsuruoka ; N. Hirata ; D. Schorlemmer ; F. Euchner ; K. Z. Nanjo…
• 关键词：Earthquake forecasting and testing ; statistical seismology ; seismic hazard ; Japan
• 刊名：Earth, Planets and Space
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：August 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：64
• 期：8
• 页码：661-671
• 全文大小：3929KB
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  Tsuruoka, H.
• 作者单位：H. Tsuruoka (1)
  N. Hirata (1)
  D. Schorlemmer (2) (3)
  F. Euchner (4)
  K. Z. Nanjo (1) (5)
  T. H. Jordan (2)
  
  1. Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
  2. Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
  3. GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany
  4. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
  5. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan
  
• 刊物类别：Earth Sciences, general; Geology; Geophysics/Geodesy;
• 刊物主题：Earth Sciences, general; Geology; Geophysics/Geodesy;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1880-5981

文摘

Major objectives of the Japanese earthquake prediction research program for the period 2009-013 are to create earthquake forecasting models and begin the prospective testing of these models against recorded seismicity. For this purpose, the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo has joined an international partnership to create a Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Here, we describe a new infrastructure for developing and evaluating forecasting models—the CSEP Japan Testing Center—as well as some preliminary testing results. On 1 November 2009, the Testing Center started a prospective and competitive earthquake predictability experiment using the seismically active and well-instrumented region of Japan as a natural laboratory. Key words Earthquake forecasting and testing statistical seismology seismic hazard Japan