Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan
详细信息 查看全文
- 作者：K. Z. Nanjo ; J. B. Rundle ; J. R. Holliday and D. L. Turcotte
- 关键词：Pattern informatics ; earthquake ; forecast ; seismicity ; 1995 Kobe earthquake ; 2004 Niigata earthquake
- 刊名：Pure and Applied Geophysics
- 出版年：2006
- 出版时间：December, 2006
- 年：2006
- 卷：163
- 期：11-12
- 页码：2417-2432
- 全文大小：709 KB
- 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Geophysics and Geodesy - 出版者：Birkh盲user Basel
- ISSN：1420-9136
文摘
Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995–2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000–2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.